Estimates of the impact of railway modernisation in southern Siberia on the geography of the economic activity based on a computable general equilibrium model

The article, based on the general equilibrium model, assesses the impact of modernization of transport infrastructure on the well-being of the population and on the spatial proportions of economic activity in the south of Western Siberia. Twenty five relatively large municipalities located in the Novosibirsk, Kemerovo, Tomsk and Omsk regions, Altai Territory and the Altai Republic are considered. Estimates showed that the highest economic returns and welfare gains for the whole territory come from upgrading transport infrastructure and reducing communication costs with the largest urban center, Novosibirsk. The calculations confirmed the role of the city as an integration core of the urban system and transport and logistics center of the south of Western Siberia. But model experiments also showed that centripetal tendencies dominate in the territory under consideration, and the benefits of spatial concentration of business are significantly higher than the costs associated with a higher density of business activity. Reduced communication costs cause a significant redistribution of business to Novosibirsk at the expense of employment and population in most other settlements, although there are exceptions. The implementation of major transport projects should be accompanied by the creation of an extensive network of roads in the surrounding areas, as well as measures to support communities the competitive features of which are significantly impaired.