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Is the External Labor Migration an Economic Growth Factor: Econometric Analysis and Policy Implications for the CIS Countries

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  • Chepel, S.

    (Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Researches under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

  • Bondarenko, K.

    (Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Researches under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

Abstract

Recent intensification of CIS countries instability has led to an intensification of migration flows in the post-soviet space. By providing multidirectional impact on the various growth factors, migration may both accelerate the development of specific countries and slow it down. The paper determines the issue of receiving higher benefit from these processes - either labor-exporting (the countries of Central Asia, Ukraine) or labor-importing countries (Russia). Using international organizations databases and the instrumental variables regression methodology we confirmed the hypothesis that in general in the long term for developing labor-exporting countries high level of labor migration constrains economic growth, although there may occur contrary situation at certain development conditions. The calculated threshold value for labor migrant remittances defines the value that inversely changes the impact of migration process on economic growth. We estimated elasticity coefficients of economic growth for certain countries of Central Asia. We defined practical recommendations to increase economic growth inclusivity of these countries by providing special economic measures, such as accelerating development of small industrial businesses and creating large numbers of new sustainable jobs.

Suggested Citation

  • Chepel, S. & Bondarenko, K., 2015. "Is the External Labor Migration an Economic Growth Factor: Econometric Analysis and Policy Implications for the CIS Countries," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 142-166.
  • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:28:p:142-166
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    Cited by:

    1. K. A. Bondarenko, 2021. "Labor Migration From Uzbekistan: a Family and Community Promoted Big Bang," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 273-284, April.
    2. Ksenia Andreevna Bondarenko, 2020. "Transformation of Socio-Cultural Factors Impacting on the External Labour Migration in Uzbekistan," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 76-108.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; migration; remittances; institutional quality; human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances

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