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Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Kamila Svobodova

    (The University of Queensland
    University of Göttingen
    Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • John R. Owen

    (University of the Free State)

  • Deanna Kemp

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Vítězslav Moudrý

    (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • Éléonore Lèbre

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Martin Stringer

    (The University of Queensland)

  • Benjamin K. Sovacool

    (University of Sussex Business School
    Boston University
    Aarhus University)

Abstract

We develop a novel approach to analysing decarbonisation strategies by linking global resource inventories with demographic systems. Our ‘mine-town systems’ approach establishes an empirical basis for examining the spatial extent of the transition and demographic effects of changing energy systems. The research highlights an urgent need for targeted macro-level planning as global markets see a decline in thermal coal and a ramp up of other mining commodities. Our findings suggest that ramping up energy transition metals (ETM) could be more disruptive to demographic systems than ramping down coal. The data shows asymmetry in the distribution of risks: mine-town systems within the United States are most sensitive to coal phase-out, while systems in Australia and Canada are most sensitive to ETM phase-in. A complete phase-out of coal could disrupt demographic systems with a minimum of 33.5 million people, and another 115.7 million people if all available ETM projects enter production.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamila Svobodova & John R. Owen & Deanna Kemp & Vítězslav Moudrý & Éléonore Lèbre & Martin Stringer & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2022. "Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-35391-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35391-2
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