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Refugee gravitation

Listed author(s):
  • Jon Echevarria

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

  • Javier Gardeazabal

    ()

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

Abstract This paper makes use of a gravity model to investigate the determinants of global forced migration. We find that omitting zero counts results in parameter estimates that underestimate covariate effects on refugee counts. We compare the pooled regression, which does not account for unobserved heterogeneity, and the fixed-effects method, which does not identify the effect of time-invariant covariates, and cannot shed much light when covariates vary little. We propose the pre-sample mean generalized method of moments (PSM-GMM) estimator, which accommodates the zeros, accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, but does not have the drawbacks of the fixed-effects methods when covariates exhibit little variation. In addition, using recently developed methods to estimate standard errors that are robust to dyadic correlation, we find evidence suggesting that previous findings based on underestimated standard errors mostly remain valid after properly adjusting standard errors; in particular, conflict and civil liberties in the source country and proximity are found to be significant determinants of forced migration. However, some covariates previously found to be significant, such as sharing a common language or having a colonial relationship, lose significance. In addition, we find a significant positive influence of the level of civil liberties in the destination country on the number of refugees it receives, a mechanism not explored before.

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File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-016-0367-y
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 169 (2016)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 269-292

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:169:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-016-0367-y
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-016-0367-y
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/public+finance/journal/11127/PS2

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  1. Mathias Czaika, 2009. "The Political Economy of Refugee Migration," Discussion Paper Series 7, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jan 2009.
  2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  3. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Windmeijer, Frank, 2002. "Individual effects and dynamics in count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 113-131, May.
  4. Steven D. Roper & Lilian A. Barria, 2010. "Burden Sharing in the Funding of the UNHCR: Refugee Protection as an Impure Public Good," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(4), pages 616-637, August.
  5. Salehyan, Idean & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2006. "Refugees and the Spread of Civil War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 335-366, April.
  6. Aronow, Peter M. & Samii, Cyrus & Assenova, Valentina A., 2015. "Cluster–Robust Variance Estimation for Dyadic Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 564-577, September.
  7. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
  8. Zaryab Iqbal, 2007. "The Geo-Politics of Forced Migration in Africa, 1992—2001," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(2), pages 105-119, April.
  9. Green, Donald P. & Kim, Soo Yeon & Yoon, David H., 2001. "Dirty Pool," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(02), pages 441-468, March.
  10. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  11. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler, 2001. "Economics of Alliances: The Lessons for Collective Action," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 869-896, September.
  12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Barthel, Fabian & Neumayer, Eric, 2015. "Spatial dependence in asylum migration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64187, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 2001. "Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(02), pages 487-495, March.
  15. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
  16. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
  17. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
  18. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
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