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Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States


  • Jimmy Karlsson

    (University of Gothenburg)


This paper estimates the effect of exogenous short-term temperature changes on the economy of the United States, using high-resolution data on monthly exports which has not been previously exploited in the literature. The detailed disaggregation of U.S. export data into sectors enables a top-down estimation of the net effect of temperature, while also identifying potential mechanisms at the micro level. Using an econometric specification which allows high parametric flexibility, I find significantly negative effects of both high and low temperatures. The magnitude of the effects corresponds to an average reduction of annual U.S. exports by 0.20%, following a uniform 2 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C temperature increase. Industry heterogeneity in the temperature effect suggests disparate mechanisms behind hot and cold days, which are important to take into account when estimating the future economic damages of climate change in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimmy Karlsson, 2021. "Temperature and Exports: Evidence from the United States," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 80(2), pages 311-337, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:80:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-021-00587-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-021-00587-5

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Osberghaus, Daniel & Schenker, Oliver, 2022. "International trade and the transmission of temperature shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-035, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Chen, Xinming & Fang, Tong, 2024. "Temperature anomalies and foreign direct investment: City-level evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Clément Nedoncelle, 2021. "Temperatures, Firm Size and Exports in Developing Countries [Températures, Taille des Firmes, et Exportations dans les Pays en Développement]," Post-Print hal-03803308, HAL.
    4. Pratik Thakkar & Kausik Gangopadhyay & Rupayan Pal, 2023. "Temperature shock and economic growth: Does spillover effect hurt more?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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