Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange
In this paper, we propose a discrete version of the short-term and long-term component model of the agricultural futures prices. The maximum likelihood estimate of each parameter is obtained using an adaptive filtering algorithm. The diagnostics statistically support the specification of the model. The short-term components exhibit no causal relationship with economic fundamentals such as inflation rate and economic growth rate. These components, therefore, seem to be driven mainly by fads rather than market fundamentals. On the other hand, the long-term components show conitegrating relationship with only one cointegrating vector among the three futures contracts examined. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006
Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Web page: http://www.jafee.gr.jp/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/10690/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
- Jian Yang & Michael Haigh & David Leatham, 2001.
"Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(9), pages 593-598.
- Yang, Jian & Leatham, David J. & Haigh, Michael S., 1999. "Agricultural Liberalization Policy and Commodity Price Volatility: A GARCH Application," Proceedings: 1999 Regional Committee NC-221, 1999, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada 132337, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
- Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, July.
- A. G. Malliaris & Jorge L. Urrutia, 1996. "Linkages between agricultural commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 595-609, 08.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
- Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices; Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?," MPRA Paper 13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
- McKenzie, Andrew M. & Holt, Matthew T., 1998. "Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20933, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Paul Brockman & Yiuman Tse, 1998. "The relationship between US and Canadian wheat futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 73-80.
- Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Rotemberg, Julio., 1987. "The excess co-movement of commodity prices," Working papers 1969-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1988. "The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 2671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adusei Jumah & Sohbet Karbuz & Gerhard Runstler, 1999. "Interest rate differentials, market integration, and the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 101-108.
- Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori & David A. Anderson, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of the Efficiency of the Osaka Rice Market During Japan's Tokugawa Era," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(9), pages 861-874, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:1-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.