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Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange

Author

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  • Ramaprasad Bhar

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  • Shigeyuki Hamori

    ()

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete version of the short-term and long-term component model of the agricultural futures prices. The maximum likelihood estimate of each parameter is obtained using an adaptive filtering algorithm. The diagnostics statistically support the specification of the model. The short-term components exhibit no causal relationship with economic fundamentals such as inflation rate and economic growth rate. These components, therefore, seem to be driven mainly by fads rather than market fundamentals. On the other hand, the long-term components show conitegrating relationship with only one cointegrating vector among the three futures contracts examined. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Component structures of agricultural commodity futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-007-9032-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jian Yang & Michael Haigh & David Leatham, 2001. "Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(9), pages 593-598.
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    5. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    6. Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasuyuki Itoh, 2007. "A Class of Gaussian Hybrid Processes for Modeling Financial Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(3), pages 185-199, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural futures; Kalman filter; Fads; G12;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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