Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market
This paper explores cointegration among three of the most popular agriculture soft commodities (corn, soya and wheat) and its potential usefulness for dynamic asset allocation strategies. Johansen tests indicate that natural logarithms of weekly prices of corn, soya and wheat futures are cointegrated and two cointegrating vectors exist. Formal tests show that the estimated long-run relationship is stable even beyond the estimation sample. We use obtained results to create simple trading rules and verify their profitability. The trading strategies’ risk-adjusted abnormal returns look to be significant based on the Sharpe ratio criterion and they are low correlated with the stock market.
|Date of creation:||2012|
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- Ramaprasad Bhar & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2006. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: some further evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 535-539.
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- G. Geoffrey Booth & Cetin Ciner, 2001. "Linkages among agricultural commodity futures prices: evidence from Tokyo," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 311-313.
- Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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