Managing Mortgage Credit Risk: What Went Wrong With the Subprime and Alt-A Markets?
The purpose of this study is two-fold: first, to explain the demise of subprime and Alt-A mortgage markets in the U.S. from the viewpoint of measuring and managing mortgage credit risk; and secondly, to discuss several policy lessons that can be learned from the market meltdown. To that end, three tiers of mortgage credit models are elaborated, including the scoring (or risk rank-ordering), risk-based pricing, and ¡§sizing¡¨ (or the analytics used in determining subordination levels of credit-sensitive mortgage backed security (MBS) deals) models. Using these as conceptual underpinning, empirical evidence is surveyed to document key contributing factors to the market demise. Those that are identified include the non-availability of reliable mortgage performance data, lack of theory as well as industry best-practices in performing simulation-based mortgage risk assessments, complex and arcane structures of mortgage backed securities, and information asymmetry among the parties involved in the security transactions. The overall conclusion derived is that the participants to these market segments surpass their risk management capabilities in globalizing funding for subprime and Alt-A mortgages. The policy lessons emphasized are the importance of the infrastructure of proper risk assessment and risk-based pricing, as well as prudent and transparent MBS products along with periodic information disclosure.
Volume (Year): 12 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.asres.org/
|Order Information:|| Postal: Asian Real Estate Society, 51 Monroe Street, Plaza E-6, Rockville, MD 20850, USA|
Web: http://www.asres.org/ Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2006.
"The termination of subprime hybrid and fixed rate mortgages,"
2006-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426.
- Brueckner, Jan K & Follain, James R, 1988. "The Rise and Fall of the ARM: An Econometric Analysis of Mortgage Choice," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 93-102, February.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008.
"Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison,"
NBER Working Papers
13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299, September.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Scholarly Articles 11129156, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Man Cho, 2007. "180 Years’ Evolution of the US Mortgage Banking System: Lessons for Emerging Mortgage Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 10(1), pages 171-212.
- Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, 04.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Working Papers 12210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
- Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Zsuzsa R. Huszar, 2005. "A Note on Hybrid Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 765-782, December.
- Wayne Passmore, 2005. "The GSE implicit subsidy and the value of government ambiguity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Wayne Passmore, 2005. "The GSE Implicit Subsidy and the Value of Government Ambiguity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 465-486, 09.
- Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
- Mark Swinburne & StÃ©phanie Marie Stolz & Marina Moretti, 2008. "Stress Testing At the IMF," IMF Working Papers 08/206, International Monetary Fund.
- S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:12:n:03:2009:p:295-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.