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A Retrospective Analysis of the House Prices Macro-Relationship in the United States

  • Ibrahim Ahamada

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jose Luis Diaz Sanchez

    (Paris School of Economics, University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne and The World Bank)

This study provides empirical evidence on the strengthening of the impact of house prices on the U.S. macroeconomy. The stability of the house price macro-link is tested in a small-dimensional vector autoregressive model over the last fifty years. The estimated break points are used to split the sample into different segments, and a multivariate time-series analysis is performed within sub-samples. The paper finds a robust structural break in the mid-80s. In addition, time-series analysis across segments provides evidence that the effect of house prices, not only on private consumption but also on economic activity, has intensified since the mid-80s.

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Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 9 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 153-174

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2013:q:4:a:5
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  1. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, 03.
  2. Norman Miller & Liang Peng & Michael Sklarz, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 522-541, May.
  3. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  5. Filippo Altissimo & Evaggelia Georgiou & Teresa Sastre & Maria Teresa Valderrama & Gabriel Sterne & Marc Stocker & Mark Weth & Karl Whelan & Alpo Willman, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Occasional Paper Series 29, European Central Bank.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  8. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul S. Willen, 2010. "The Impact of Deregulation and Financial Innovation on Consumers: The Case of the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 333-360, 02.
  9. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 747-756, April.
  10. Eiji Kurozumi & Purevdorj Tuvaandorj, 2010. "Model Selection Criteria in Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-144, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  11. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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