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The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

Author

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  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu
  • Vasile Dedu

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness of a country. An overvalued real exchange rate will determine a lack of external competitiveness and deteriorate the country’s real activity. An undervalued exchange rate will increase on short term exports and it will lower the current account deficit but, on the long term it will increase the inflationary pressures. The equilibrium real exchange rate is also a very important variable for a country who wishes to join ERM II. In fact the central parity should be chosen to reflect the equilibrium exchange rate. The conclusion is that the real exchange rate had some important deviations from its equilibrium value which were determined by the liberalization of the prices and of the foreign exchange market and by the fluctuations of the nominal exchange rate. These deviations are not likely to put at risk the entry in ERM II.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu & Vasile Dedu, 2009. "The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 119-130.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xii:y:2009:i:1:p:119-130
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    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/09_1_p8.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    2. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
    3. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
    7. Candelon, Bertrand & Kool, Clemens & Raabe, Katharina & van Veen, Tom, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate determinants: Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993-2003," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, March.
    8. El. Thalassinos & Th. Kiriazidis, 2003. "Degrees Of Integration In International Portfolio Diversification: Effective Systemic Risk," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 119-130, January -.
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    Cited by:

    1. Imre Vámos & Zsuzsanna Novák, 2015. "Four currencies outside the eurozone," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 8(3), pages 97-108, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium real exchange rate; productivity differential; nominal convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M42 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Auditing
    • H83 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Public Administration

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