IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/erh/journl/v16y2024i2p89-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Panel Data Analysis of Effects of Economic Vulnerability Index Indicators on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Kerem Sezerer

    (Anadolu University, Graduate School, Economics, Eskisehir, Türkiye)

  • Burak Arslan

    (Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Türkiye)

Abstract

The volatility of exchange rates is considered to be an important measure of a country's economic vulnerability and has a direct or indirect causal relationship with a large number of macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic variables in the economic vulnerability index that affect the exchange rate for developing countries and the extent to which they affect the exchange rate, and to make policy recommendations. We conducted a panel data analysis using data from 11 developing countries between 2000 and 2022 for this purpose. We performed the analyses using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator. As a result of the analyses, it is found that there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between the real effective exchange rate and inflation, private sector credit debt/GDP and gross public debt/GDP ratio. In addition, the relationship between Real effective exchange rate and current account deficit/GDP ratio, External debt/GDP ratio and growth rate is positive and statistically insignificant. As a policy recommendation, it can be said that for stable and sustainable economic management in developing countries, the exchange rate level should be less volatile and should be compatible with reliable fiscal and monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerem Sezerer & Burak Arslan, 2024. "A Panel Data Analysis of Effects of Economic Vulnerability Index Indicators on Real Effective Exchange Rate in Developing Countries," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 89-106, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:89-106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/4081153
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428.
    2. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Anca Elena Nucu, 2011. "The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Key Macroeconomic Indicators. Case Study: Romania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(41), pages 127-145, September.
    4. Kaboro Jane & Mose Naftaly, 2021. "Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate Uncertain," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 47-55, September.
    5. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    7. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    8. Markus Eberhardt, 2012. "Estimating panel time-series models with heterogeneous slopes," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 12(1), pages 61-71, March.
    9. Kenneth D. Goldin, 1966. "Economic Growth And The Individual," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 550-551, September.
    10. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
    11. Francis Teal & Markus Eberhardt, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    13. Samuel Antwi & Mohammed Issah & Aboagyewaa Patience & Solomon Antwi & David McMillan, 2020. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate: Evidence from Ghana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1821483-182, January.
    14. Adusei, Michael & Gyapong, Eddie Yaw, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate volatility in Ghana: The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1428-1444.
    15. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saqib, Najia & Ozturk, Ilhan & Sharif, Arshian & Cichoń, Dariusz, 2024. "Enhancing sustainable energy: Mineral exports, financial development, and foreign investment can build a greener future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2018. "Globalization and Environment: An Asian Experience," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-27, October.
    3. Hussein Moghaddam & Robert M. Kunst, 2023. "The Role of Natural Gas in Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Major Gas-Producing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    6. Salim, Ruhul & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S., 2017. "Does human capital matter for energy consumption in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 49-59.
    7. Schneider, Nicolas & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2023. "Modelling the unit root properties of electricity data—A general note on time-domain applications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    8. Lazăr, Dorina & Minea, Alexandru & Purcel, Alexandra-Anca, 2019. "Pollution and economic growth: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1121-1131.
    9. Linda Deserno & Ellen Sterk, 2025. "Resource Taxes as an Instrument to Foster Circularity? Analysis of the Effects of Resource Taxation on Circular Economy Progress in Europe," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 873-899, April.
    10. Nwani, Chinazaekpere & Usman, Ojonugwa & Okere, Kingsley Ikechukwu & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2023. "Technological pathways to decarbonisation and the role of renewable energy: A study of European countries using consumption-based metrics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Saqib, Najia & Shahzad, U., 2024. "Pathways to sustainability: Evaluating the impact of green energy, natural resources, FinTech, and environmental policies in resource-abundant countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Hlalefang Khobai & Clement Moyo, 2021. "Trade openness and industry performance in SADC countries: is the manufacturing sector different?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 105-126, February.
    13. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Large panel data models with cross-sectional dependence: a survey," Globalization Institute Working Papers 153, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Antonio Musolesi, 2013. "The heterogeneity of carbon Kuznets curves for advanced countries: comparing homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage/Bayesian estimators," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3827-3842, September.
    15. Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng & Wang, Kun & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Is artificial intelligence technology innovation a recipe for low-carbon energy transition? A global perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    16. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Mehmet Balcilar & Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Causal relationship between asset prices and output in the US: Evidence from state-level panel Granger causality test," Working Papers 201411, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. P. S. Morawakage & G. Earl & B. Liu & E. Roca & A. Omura, 2023. "Housing Risk and Returns in Submarkets with Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 695-734, November.
    18. Alataş, Sedat, 2022. "Do environmental technologies help to reduce transport sector CO2 emissions? Evidence from the EU15 countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Madhu Sehrawat & Sanjay Kumar Singh, 2021. "Do Corruption and Income Inequality Play Spoilsport in The Energy Efficiency-Growth Relationship in BRICS Countries?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(4), pages 727-746, December.
    20. Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, 2021. "The financial sector expansion effect on renewable electricity production: case of the BRICS countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 9029-9051, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Augmented Mean Group (AMG) Estimator; Real Effective Exchange Rate; Developing Countries; Panel Data Analysis; Macroeconomic Indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erh:journl:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:89-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. F. Cosar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eratrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.