Technological pathways to decarbonisation and the role of renewable energy: A study of European countries using consumption-based metrics

To decarbonise Europe in the post-COP26 era, current policies must be adjusted to account for the cross-border consequences of its consumption pattern. Using consumption-based Kaya identity metrics adjusted for emissions and energy embodied in traded goods and services, this study examines the nexus between technological factors defining energy transition progress, specifically energy and carbon intensities of the consumption mix, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, in a sample of 20 European countries from 1995 to 2019. The empirical steps rely on panel-data estimators that are robust to cross-sectional dependence and allow for heterogeneous slope coefficients. The results show that energy and carbon intensities of the consumption mix have a positive relationship with CO2 emissions but a negative relationship with renewable energy consumption. The findings also verify an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and CO2 emissions through the energy and carbon intensity metrics. Additional tests show a unidirectional causality from carbon intensity of the energy mix to CO2 emissions and from renewable energy to the carbon intensity. Also, bidirectional causality exists between CO2 emissions and per capita GDP and energy intensity, and between renewable energy and energy intensity. By implication, renewable energy provides the technological path to mitigating consumption-induced emissions in Europe.