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An alternative to the middle-income trap

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  • Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos
  • Araújo, Eliane Cristina
  • Costa Peres, Samuel

Abstract

This paper offers an alternative explanation to the slow-down observed in the growth of developing countries. Instead of a middle-income trap what happened was a liberalization trap. Growth didn't happen because countries turned middle-income, but happened in a given period, around the 1980s, when these countries faced a serious foreign debt crisis and were constrained to open their economies. The studies on the middle-income trap have adopted a broad income interval and were unable to offer new historical facts that explained why these countries stop growing fast. Differently, this paper shows that the trade liberalization and the financial liberalization that started in the 1980s involved the dismantling of the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the change from low to high interest rates – both facts leading to a long-term or chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate that made the manufacturing industry non-competitive and caused deindustrialization and low growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Araújo, Eliane Cristina & Costa Peres, Samuel, 2020. "An alternative to the middle-income trap," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 294-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:52:y:2020:i:c:p:294-312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.11.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xiaoshan Hu & Guanghua Wan & Chen Yang & Anqi Zhang, 2023. "Inequality and the middle‐income trap," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1684-1710, October.
    3. Botta, Alberto & Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano Toshiro, 2023. "Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 175-188.
    4. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Global Value Chains from an Evolutionary Economic Geography perspective: a research agenda," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2134, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Nov 2021.
    5. Upalat Korwatanasakul, 2023. "Thailand and the Middle-Income Trap: An Analysis from the Global Value Chain Perspective," PIER Discussion Papers 202, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Andreoni, Antonio & Tregenna, Fiona, 2020. "Escaping the middle-income technology trap: A comparative analysis of industrial policies in China, Brazil and South Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 324-340.
    7. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    8. Hartmann, Dominik & Zagato, Ligia & Gala, Paulo & Pinheiro, Flavio L., 2021. "Why did some countries catch-up, while others got stuck in the middle? Stages of productive sophistication and smart industrial policies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Designing Smart Specialization Policy: relatedness, unrelatedness, or what?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2128, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2021.
    11. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2021. "Do liberal policy regimes condemn Latin America to quasi-stagnation?," Textos para discussão 541, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    12. Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    13. Gemici, Evrim & Gemici, Zafer, 2021. "A Comparative Study on Turkey’s Science and Technology (S&T) Indicators," OSF Preprints csyud, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Middle-income trap; Latin America; Asia; Deindustrialization; Liberalizing reforms; Liberalization trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

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