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Why did some countries catch-up, while others got stuck in the middle? Stages of productive sophistication and smart industrial policies

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  • Hartmann, Dominik
  • Zagato, Ligia
  • Gala, Paulo
  • Pinheiro, Flavio L.

Abstract

Development studies on the middle-income trap have highlighted the challenges for developing economies to transform their productive systems from simple towards high value-added activities. Here, we use trade data of 116 countries to quantify the stages of productive sophistication and reveal the critical phase that countries encounter at intermediate levels of economic sophistication. Our results reveal that only five countries (i.e. Ireland, Israel, Hungary, Singapore, and South Korea) overcame the gravitation towards simple products and fully transformed their economies towards complex products between 1970 and 2010. They successfully made use of windows of opportunities in the digital and electronics sectors through smart industrial policies that promoted endogenous skills and access to international knowledge sources. In contrast, countries like Brazil or South Africa still struggle with the gravitation towards simple economic activities, social fragmentation, and a lack of coherent industrial policies.

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  • Hartmann, Dominik & Zagato, Ligia & Gala, Paulo & Pinheiro, Flavio L., 2021. "Why did some countries catch-up, while others got stuck in the middle? Stages of productive sophistication and smart industrial policies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:58:y:2021:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.04.007
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    2. Dominik Hartmann & Diogo Ferraz & Mayra Bezerra & Andreas Pyka & Flavio L. Pinheiro, 2021. "Comparing cars with apples? Identifying the appropriate benchmark countries for relative ecological pollution rankings and international learning," Papers 2107.14365, arXiv.org.
    3. Diogo Ferraz & Fernanda P. S. Falguera & Enzo B. Mariano & Dominik Hartmann, 2021. "Linking Economic Complexity, Diversification, and Industrial Policy with Sustainable Development: A Structured Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, January.
    4. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    5. Su Jung Jee & Kerstin Hotte, 2024. "From catch-up to frontier: The utility model as a learning device to escape the middle-income trap," Papers 2408.14205, arXiv.org.
    6. Knez, Klemen, 2022. "Domestic Supplier Spillovers of Global Value Chains in Central and Eastern European Countries," MPRA Paper 112391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso & Eva Yamila da Silva Catela & Guilherme Viegas & Fl'avio L. Pinheiro & Dominik Hartmann, 2023. "Export complexity, industrial complexity and regional economic growth in Brazil," Papers 2312.07469, arXiv.org.
    8. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Designing Smart Specialization Policy: relatedness, unrelatedness, or what?," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2128, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Sep 2021.
    9. Jung-In Yeon & Sojung Hwang & Bogang Jun, 2022. "The spillover effect of neighboring port on regional industrial diversification and regional economic resilience," Papers 2204.00189, arXiv.org.
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    11. Zahedi Rad, Vahid & Seifi, Abbas & Fadai, Dawud, 2023. "Policy design for transition from imitation to innovation in emerging photovoltaic sectors using a system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Pierre-Alex Balland & Ron Boschma, 2024. "An Evolutionary Approach to Regional Development Traps in European Regions," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2420, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jul 2024.
    13. Haini, Hazwan & Wei Loon, Pang & Li Li, Pang, 2023. "Can export diversification promote export upgrading? Evidence from an oil-dependent economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Deyu Li & Floor Alkemade & Koen Frenken & Gaston Heimeriks, 2023. "Catching up in clean energy technologies: a patent analysis," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 693-715, April.
    15. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Anaclara Martinis & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Varieties of middle-income trap: heterogeneous trajectories and common determinants," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-16, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    16. João Alcobia, 2023. "The Promised Land Or A Mirage? The Puzzling Divergence Of The European Union'S Periphery," Working Papers REM 2023/0273, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Eduardo Polloni‐Silva & Herick Fernando Moralles & Daisy Aparecida do Nascimento Rebelatto & Dominik Hartmann, 2021. "Are foreign companies a blessing or a curse for local development in Brazil? It depends on the home country and host region's institutions," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 933-962, June.
    18. Pinheiro, Flávio L. & Hartmann, Dominik & Boschma, Ron & Hidalgo, César A., 2022. "The time and frequency of unrelated diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    19. John A. Cotsomitis, 2022. "The Learning Economy Regime," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 687-722, March.
    20. Ron Boschma, 2021. "Global Value Chains from an Evolutionary Economic Geography perspective: a research agenda," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2134, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Nov 2021.
    21. Upalat Korwatanasakul, 2023. "Thailand and the Middle-Income Trap: An Analysis from the Global Value Chain Perspective," PIER Discussion Papers 202, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Gnidchenko, Andrey A., 2021. "Structural transformation and quality ladders: Evidence from the new Theil's decomposition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 281-291.
    23. Carlos Bianchi & Pablo Galaso & Sergio Palomeque, 2023. "Knowledge complexity and brokerage in inter-city networks," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 1773-1799, October.
    24. Fanglei Wang & Jianbo Gao & Feiyan Liu, 2024. "Unlocking Africa’s development potential: insights from the perspective of global hierarchy and competition," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Catching-up; Economic complexity; Economic growth; Industrial policies; Product space; Productive sophistication;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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