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Are contemporary policies uncertainties driving public attention to blockchain-fintech and price movements of related derivative products? Evidence from the United States

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  • M'bakob, Gilles Brice

Abstract

The United States, a leader in cryptocurrency adoption, faces significant geopolitical, economic, monetary, climatic, and policy uncertainties from 2014 to 2024, which impact the cryptocurrency market. This study examines the conditions under which these policy uncertainties influence public attention to blockchain-fintech and the valuation of related derivatives. Using monthly U.S. data (2014–2024), we employ PCA to construct a blockchain-fintech attention index and a derivative price index, GMM for causal estimation to address endogeneity, Markov-Switching Regression for market regime analysis, ARDL for temporal effects, and SVAR for bidirectional relationships. U.S.-China tensions and monetary and climatic policy uncertainties boost blockchain-fintech attention and derivative prices. However, the effects are mixed across different generations of blockchain fintech and greencoins. Economic policy uncertainty has an inhibitory effect throughout. All policy uncertainty effects vary by market phase and time horizon. A bidirectional causality exists between attention and prices, making them reciprocal channels for transmitting policy uncertainties. This finding resolves the paradox between risk-aversion theory, in which uncertainty acts as an inhibitor by increasing risk aversion, and financial innovation theory, in which uncertainty catalyzes the adoption of innovations. It demonstrates that policy uncertainties can function as both brakes and accelerators depending on specific conditions: the type of uncertainty, asset heterogeneity, market regimes, and time horizons.

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  • M'bakob, Gilles Brice, 2026. "Are contemporary policies uncertainties driving public attention to blockchain-fintech and price movements of related derivative products? Evidence from the United States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:81:y:2026:i:c:s0275531925004337
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103177
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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