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Regional emission dynamics in the phases of the EU Emissions Trading System

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  • Dueñas, Marco
  • Mandel, Antoine

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions across European regions from 1990 to 2022, specifically concerning the dynamics of emissions growth rates through the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) phases. We find that emissions dynamics exhibit significant volatility, and the distribution of emissions growth rates is asymmetric and displays fat tails, suggesting the potential for extreme emissions events. We identify marked disparities across regions: less developed regions experience higher emissions growth rates and greater volatility than many developed areas, which show a trend of declining emissions and reduced volatility. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of emissions to policy changes, which challenges the just transition towards decarbonisation and affects the governance of climate policies in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dueñas, Marco & Mandel, Antoine, 2025. "Regional emission dynamics in the phases of the EU Emissions Trading System," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 673(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:673:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125003322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130680
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