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A permutation entropy based test for causality: The volume–stock price relation

Author

Listed:
  • Matilla-García, Mariano
  • Marín, Manuel Ruiz
  • Dore, Mohammed I.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to propose a newly developed non-parametric test for linear and nonlinear causality based on permutation entropy and to show its usefulness in analyzing the potential causal relationship between trading volume and security prices. Most of the empirical applications and tests for causality rely on using Granger causality based test for linear models. Although these tests have high power in uncovering linear causal relations, their power against nonlinear causal relations can be low. Our test is designed to deal with the detection of linear and non-linear causality. We also compare our permutation entropy based test with other Granger causality tests. Monte Carlo simulations show excellent performance (in terms of size and power) of the new test for detecting linear and non-linear causality under different scenarios. Our conclusions point that there is a bidirectional causal relation from volume to price returns not only in the mean but also in the variance.

Suggested Citation

  • Matilla-García, Mariano & Marín, Manuel Ruiz & Dore, Mohammed I., 2014. "A permutation entropy based test for causality: The volume–stock price relation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 280-288.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:398:y:2014:i:c:p:280-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.11.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diks Cees & Panchenko Valentyn, 2005. "A Note on the Hiemstra-Jones Test for Granger Non-causality," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9, June.
    2. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Liu, Zhi-ying, 2012. "Price–volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3484-3495.
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    4. Zunino, Luciano & Zanin, Massimiliano & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2010. "Complexity-entropy causality plane: A useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1891-1901.
    5. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 42-58, January.
    6. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    7. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    8. Mariano Matilla-García & José Miguel Rodríguez & Manuel Ruiz Marín, 2010. "A symbolic test for testing independence between time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 76-85, March.
    9. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Rongbao & Xiong, Wei & Li, Xinjie, 2015. "Does the singular value decomposition entropy have predictive power for stock market? — Evidence from the Shenzhen stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 439(C), pages 103-113.
    2. Wang, Qizhen & Zhu, Yingming & Yang, Liansheng & Mul, Remco A.H., 2017. "Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis of Asian stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 337-350.
    3. repec:eee:phsmap:v:494:y:2018:i:c:p:389-402 is not listed on IDEAS

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