IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v90y2025ics0927538x25000289.html

How does artificial intelligence shock affect labor income distribution? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Xiamin
  • Wu, Yuhui
  • Zhou, Yucheng
  • Wu, Shinong

Abstract

Based on the neoclassical growth model and labor-management negotiation framework, we theoretically investigate the impact and mechanism of artificial intelligence (AI) shocks on the labor income share of firms. We then take China's “New-generation Artificial Intelligence Pilot Zone Policy” (AI pilot zone policy) as an exogenous shock and analyze micro-level corporate data. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences model, we find that the AI pilot zone policy significantly increases the labor income share in firms, primarily through the skill demand and skill premium effects. Our results withstand various robustness tests. Furthermore, we observe that the AI pilot zone policy has a more pronounced impact on the labor income share in firms characterized by high labor rigidity, low wage premiums, non-labor-intensive industries, and high-tech sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Xiamin & Wu, Yuhui & Zhou, Yucheng & Wu, Shinong, 2025. "How does artificial intelligence shock affect labor income distribution? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:90:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25000289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102691
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X25000289
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102691?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    2. David Autor & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share," NBER Working Papers 24871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anders Akerman & Ingvil Gaarder & Magne Mogstad, 2015. "The Skill Complementarity of Broadband Internet," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 1781-1824.
    4. H. Uzawa, 1961. "Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 28(2), pages 117-124.
    5. Guy Michaels & Ashwini Natraj & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over 25 Years," CEP Discussion Papers dp0987, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2017. "Balanced Growth Despite Uzawa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1293-1312, April.
    7. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, March.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Benjamin F. Jones & Charles I. Jones, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 237-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    10. Anastassia Fedyk & James Hodson & Natalya Khimich & Tatiana Fedyk, 2022. "Is artificial intelligence improving the audit process?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 938-985, September.
    11. Wei, Xiahai & Jiang, Feng & Su, Yaqin, 2024. "More green, less labor gains? Green factory and labor income share in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    13. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2021. "The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 3104-3153.
    14. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    15. Luo, Sumei & Sun, Yongkun & Zhou, Rui, 2022. "Can fintech innovation promote household consumption? Evidence from China family panel studies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    17. Bentolila Samuel & Saint-Paul Gilles, 2003. "Explaining Movements in the Labor Share," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, October.
    18. Ezra Oberfield & Devesh Raval, 2021. "Micro Data and Macro Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 703-732, March.
    19. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    20. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    21. Babina, Tania & Fedyk, Anastassia & He, Alex & Hodson, James, 2024. "Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    22. William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 299-332, January.
    23. Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2020. "The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1673-1712, June.
    24. Li, Chengming & Huo, Peng & Wang, Zeyu & Zhang, Weiguang & Liang, Feiyan & Mardani, Abbas, 2023. "Digitalization generates equality? Enterprises’ digital transformation, financing constraints, and labor share in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    25. Zhu, Wenpeng, 2023. "Digital financial inclusion and the share of labor income: Firm-level evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    26. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2018. "Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 23-57, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Guy Michaels & Ashwini Natraj & John Van Reenen, 2014. "Has ICT Polarized Skill Demand? Evidence from Eleven Countries over Twenty-Five Years," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 60-77, March.
    28. DeCanio, Stephen J., 2016. "Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 280-291.
    29. Johan Hombert & Antoinette Schoar & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2020. "Can Unemployment Insurance Spur Entrepreneurial Activity? Evidence from France," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1247-1285, June.
    30. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 1973-2016, September.
    31. Xiao, Gang & Shen, Sichen, 2022. "To pollute or not to pollute: Political connections and corporate environmental performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    32. Paul Beaudry & Mark Doms & Ethan Lewis, 2010. "Should the Personal Computer Be Considered a Technological Revolution? Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 988-1036.
    33. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Bai & Wenyao, Zhao, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China: A pre-registered report," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Lu, Junwei & Gao, He & Yang, Laifeng & Liu, Zhangxin (Frank), 2026. "Government-guided funds and the rise of corporate AI: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Chen, Xiaoxiao & Yang, Jiayi & Wu, Bo, 2025. "How is artificial intelligence shaping the labor demand of firms? ——evidence from text-mining analysis of listed companies," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(10).
    4. Zhi Wang & Mei Xue & Yunlei Luo, 2025. "How Does the National New Generation AI Innovation and Development Pilot Zone Impact Corporate Labor Investment Efficiency? Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 15(4), pages 21582440251, December.
    5. Sun, Guanglin & Ling, Zhencheng & Li, Yanru & Xie, Chang, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and financial fraud," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Hao, Xiaoli & Chen, Linshen & Wang, Shuran & Li, Yuyi & Wu, Haitao & Li, Peilun, 2025. "Carbon lock-in and resource lock-in effects of machine substitution: Evidence from 54 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deng, Liuchun & Müller, Steffen & Plümpe, Verena & Stegmaier, Jens, 2024. "Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2024. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(3), pages 1399-1465.
    3. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    4. Baek, Seungjin & Jeong, Deokjae, 2023. "Factors Influencing Labor Share: Automation, Task Innovation, and Elasticity of Substitution," MPRA Paper 118730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wang, Linhui & Cao, Zhanglu & Dong, Zhiqing, 2023. "Are artificial intelligence dividends evenly distributed between profits and wages? Evidence from the private enterprise survey data in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 342-356.
    6. Qian, Cheng & Zhu, Chun & Huang, Duen-Huang & Zhang, Shangfeng, 2023. "Examining the influence mechanism of artificial intelligence development on labor income share through numerical simulations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Li, Xiaofan & Wang, Qiaochu & Kong, Dongmin & Tao, Yunqing, 2025. "Intelligent manufacturing and corporate human capital upgrade in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Camiña, Ester & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Automation technologies: Long-term effects for Spanish industrial firms," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Gao, Jie & Li, Zhizhuo & Nguyen, Thithuha & Zhang, Wentao, 2025. "Digital transformation and enterprise employment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Zhou, Yuwen & Shi, Xin, 2025. "How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    12. Zhang, Xiaoru & Jiang, Wei & Wu, Chuanqing, 2026. "Does data factor marketisation effect labour income share? Evidence from Chinese A-share listed companies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    13. Cheng, Can & Luo, Jiayu & Zhu, Chun & Zhang, Shangfeng, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and the skill premium: A numerical analysis of theoretical models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Ciaschi, Matias & Falcone, Guillermo & Garganta, Santiago & Gasparini, Leonardo & Bertín, Octavio & Ramírez-Leira, Lucía, 2025. "The Potential Distributive Impact of AI-driven Labor Changes in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 14253, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. repec:ces:ceswps:_10955 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Capital-augmenting technical change in the context of untapped automation opportunities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 155-166.
    17. Yingjie Xu & Bingchao Zheng & Baojie Guo, 2025. "How Do Industrial Robots Affect the Total Factor Productivity in Manufacturing Enterprises?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(4), pages 14057-14093, October.
    18. Wu, Yifan & Yuan, Yiming & Song, Xueyin, 2025. "The impact of AI adoption on R&D productivity: Evidence from Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Niu, Meng & Wang, Zhenguo & Zhang, Yabin, 2022. "How information and communication technology drives (routine and non-routine) jobs: Structural path and decomposition analysis for China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    20. Radeef Chundakkadan & Subash Sasidharan & Kausik Chaudhuri, 2025. "Automation, firm performance, and employment: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 873-900, November.
    21. Chen, Xiaoxiao & Yang, Jiayi & Wu, Bo, 2025. "How is artificial intelligence shaping the labor demand of firms? ——evidence from text-mining analysis of listed companies," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(10).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:90:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x25000289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.