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The Elephant in the Room: the Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets

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Listed:
  • Xiaoji Lin

    (Ohio State University)

  • Xiaofei Zhao

    (University of Texas-Dallas)

  • Jack Favilukis

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

We show that labor market frictions are first-order for understanding credit markets. Wage growth and labor share forecast aggregate credit spreads and debt growth as well as or better than alternative predictors. They also predict credit risk and debt growth in a cross-section of international firms. Finally, high labor share firms choose lower financial leverage. A model with labor market frictions and risky long-term debt can explain these findings, and produce large credit spreads despite realistically low default probabilities. This is because pre-committed payments to labor make other committed payments (i.e. interest) riskier.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao & Jack Favilukis, 2017. "The Elephant in the Room: the Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets," 2017 Meeting Papers 896, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:896
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
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    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérangère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2022. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," Working Papers hal-03881619, HAL.
    2. Guo, Hui & Jiang, Xiaowen, 2021. "Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.
    4. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane & Patault, Bérengère & Moreau, Flavien, 2020. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 13794, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérangère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2022. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881619, HAL.
    6. Nuno Silva & Pedro Dias Moreira & Sónia Félix, 2021. "On the measurement of Portuguese firms’ fixed operating costs," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Matthieu Bouvard & Adolfo de Motta, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," Post-Print hal-03524121, HAL.
    8. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi, 2022. "Tax enforcement and corporate employment: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng, 2021. "Social insurance law and corporate financing decisions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 816-837.
    10. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. João F. Gomes & Lukas Schmid, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Leverage and Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 977-1018, April.
    12. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Bouvard, Matthieu & de Motta, Adolfo, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," TSE Working Papers 21-1179, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Winston Wei Dou & Yan Ji & David Reibstein & Wei Wu, 2021. "Inalienable Customer Capital, Corporate Liquidity, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 211-265, February.
    15. Bouvard, Matthieu & de Motta, Adolfo, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1229-1252.
    16. Deng, Lixing & Lai, Shaojie & Liu, Shiang & Pu, Xiaoling, 2022. "Social insurance premiums and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from social insurance law in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Cantarella, Michele & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2022. "Job polarisation and household borrowing," Working Paper Series 2683, European Central Bank.
    18. Zhao, Yueyang & Mao, Jinzhou, 2022. "Energy effects of non-energy policies: Minimum wage standard and enterprise energy efficiency in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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