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The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets

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  • Jack Favilukis
  • Xiaoji Lin
  • Xiaofei Zhao

Abstract

We show that labor market frictions are first-order for understanding credit markets. Wage growth and labor share forecast aggregate credit spreads and debt growth as well as or better than alternative predictors. They also predict credit risk and debt growth in a cross section of international firms. Finally, high labor share firms choose lower financial leverage. A model with labor market frictions and risky long-term debt can explain these findings, and produce large credit spreads despite realistically low default probabilities. This is because precommitted payments to labor make other committed payments (i.e., interest) riskier.

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  • Jack Favilukis & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2020. "The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1673-1712, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:6:p:1673-1712
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170156
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    1. Abowd, John M, 1989. "The Effect of Wage Bargains on the Stock Market Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 774-800, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koji Takahashi & Sumiko Takaoka, 2023. "How much do firms need to satisfy employees? - Evidence from credit spreads and online employee reviews," BIS Working Papers 1111, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Bouvard, Matthieu & de Motta, Adolfo, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," TSE Working Papers 21-1179, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Winston Wei Dou & Yan Ji & David Reibstein & Wei Wu, 2021. "Inalienable Customer Capital, Corporate Liquidity, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 211-265, February.
    5. Cahuc, Pierre & Carcillo, Stéphane & Patault, Bérengère & Moreau, Flavien, 2020. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 13794, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Jessie Jiaxu Wang, 2023. "Workplace Automation and Corporate Liquidity Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-023, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Bouvard, Matthieu & de Motta, Adolfo, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1229-1252.
    8. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérangère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2022. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881619, HAL.
    9. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi, 2022. "Tax enforcement and corporate employment: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng, 2021. "Social insurance law and corporate financing decisions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 816-837.
    11. Deng, Lixing & Lai, Shaojie & Liu, Shiang & Pu, Xiaoling, 2022. "Social insurance premiums and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from social insurance law in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Nuno Silva & Pedro Dias Moreira & Sónia Félix, 2021. "On the measurement of Portuguese firms’ fixed operating costs," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Matthieu Bouvard & Adolfo de Motta, 2021. "Labor leverage, coordination failures, and aggregate risk," Post-Print hal-03524121, HAL.
    14. Pierre Cahuc & Stéphane Carcillo & Bérangère Patault & Flavien Moreau, 2022. "Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance," Working Papers hal-03881619, HAL.
    15. João F. Gomes & Lukas Schmid, 2021. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing with Leverage and Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 977-1018, April.
    16. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Bae, Jaewan & Kang, Jangkoo, 2023. "Human capital quality and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Cantarella, Michele & Kavonius, Ilja Kristian, 2022. "Job polarisation and household borrowing," Working Paper Series 2683, European Central Bank.
    19. Guo, Hui & Jiang, Xiaowen, 2021. "Aggregate Distress Risk and Equity Returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.
    21. Zhao, Yueyang & Mao, Jinzhou, 2022. "Energy effects of non-energy policies: Minimum wage standard and enterprise energy efficiency in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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