Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input–output analysis
This paper aims to examine the impacts of sectoral price control policies on oil price pass-through into China's aggregate price level. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input–output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution – the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the US, we separate the impact of price control from that of other factors leading to China's price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the US, with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy's resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper suggests a gradual relaxing of price control in China.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Byung Rhae & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2001. "Monetary policy, oil price shocks, and the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 321-349, August.
- Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009.
"The effect of oil price on China's exports,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
- Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2011. "China's energy security, the Malacca dilemma and responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7612-7615.
- Kerschner, Christian & Hubacek, Klaus, 2009. "Assessing the suitability of input–output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential economic effects of Peak Oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 284-290.
- Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2009.
"In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050,"
15587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhongxiang Zhang, 2011. "In what format and under what timeframe would China take on climate commitments? A roadmap to 2050," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 245-259, September.
- ZhongXiang Zhang, 2010. "In What Format and under What Timeframe Would China Take on Climate Commitments? A Roadmap to 2050," Working Papers 2010.112, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2001.
"Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries,"
01-02, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
- Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, . "Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence For Some Europesan Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-02, FEDEA.
- ZhongXiang Zhang, 2010.
"China in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy,"
2010.76, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yücel, Mine K., 2001.
"Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey,"
0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
- Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2009.
"Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy,"
14703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages S3-S14, September.
- Weiqi Tang & Libo Wu & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy," Economics Study Area Working Papers 102, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
- Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
- Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte & Renaud Crassous, 2008.
"The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model,"
CIRED Working Papers
- Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
- Céline Guivarch & Stéphane Hallegatte & Renaud Crassous, 2009. "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model," Post-Print hal-00566971, HAL.
- Céline Guivarch, 2009. "The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model," Post-Print halshs-00799441, HAL.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1994.
"Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay,"
NBER Working Papers
4833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
- Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004.
"A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
- Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
- Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 2002. "On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 823-852, May.
- Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
- Hakan Berument, 2002.
"Inflationary Effect of Crude Oil Prices in Turkey,"
0203, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
- Berument, Hakan & Taşçı, Hakan, 2002. "Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 568-580.
- Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
- Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
- F Giarratani, 1976. "Application of an interindustry supply model to energy issues," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 8(4), pages 447-454, April.
- Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Dynamic Factor Demands and the Effects of Energy Price Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1066-79, December.
- Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984.
"Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
- John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
- Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 107-137, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:2:p:354-369. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.