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Does democracy lower growth volatility? A dynamic panel analysis

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  • Yang, Benhua

Abstract

This paper employs dynamic panel generalized method of moment (GMM) technique to empirically examine the causal relationship between democracy and growth volatility for a sample of 138 countries over the 1968-2002 period. Improving upon the methodology of earlier papers, this study finds that the causal effects of democracy on volatility are not highly robust as previously suggested. Instead, the results of this paper indicate that the democracy-volatility relationship may depend on the ethnic structure of a society. In countries with high degrees of ethnic heterogeneity, democracy appears to significantly reduce growth volatility; in countries with low degrees of ethnic diversity such a relationship is not significant.

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  • Yang, Benhua, 2008. "Does democracy lower growth volatility? A dynamic panel analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 562-574, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:562-574
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    2. Zuazu Bermejo, Izaskun, 2015. "Political Institutions, Technology and Growth: a dynamic panel approach," IKERLANAK 16266, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
    3. Barbara Meller, 2013. "The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 477-504, September.
    4. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2010. "The Choice of Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: Do Domestic Institutions Matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1561, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Tedesco, Ilaria & Pelloni, Alessandra & Trovato, Giovanni, 2015. "Oecd Agricultural Subsidies And Poverty Rates In Lower Income Countries," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(2), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Sugata Ghosh & Andros Gregoriou & Anirban Mitra, 2013. "On the Role of Democracy in the Ethnicity-Growth Relationship: Theory and Evidence," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 13-02, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
    7. Maddah, Majid & Ghaffari Nejad, Amir Hossein & Sargolzaei, Mostafa, 2022. "Natural resources, political competition, and economic growth: An empirical evidence from dynamic panel threshold kink analysis in Iranian provinces," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    9. Jeffry A. Jacob & Thomas Osang, 2018. "Democracy And Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 41-80, August.
    10. Kangoye, Thierry, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series 064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Yang, Benhua, 2011. "Political democratization, economic liberalization, and growth volatility," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 245-259, June.
    12. Steven Hall & Misa Nishikawa, 2018. "Alternation of parties in power and economic volatility: testing the rational partisan hypothesis and policy learning hypothesis," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 91-118, May.
    13. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    14. Thierry Kangoye, 2011. "Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-064, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Andrew Williams, 2014. "The effect of transparency on output volatility," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 101-129, May.
    16. Dramane Coulibaly, 2009. "Remittances, financing constraints and growth volatility : Do remittances dampen or magnify shocks ?," Post-Print halshs-00384483, HAL.
    17. Kunal Sen & Lant Pritchett & Sabyasachi Kar & Selim Raihan, 2016. "Democracy versus dictatorship? The political determinants of growth episodes," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-070-16, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    18. Sato, Masayuki & Samreth, Sovannroeun & Sasaki, Kengo, 2013. "The Stability of Sustainable Development Path and Institutions: Evidence from Genuine Savings Indicators," MPRA Paper 48983, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    20. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

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