IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v48y2009i3p269-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Democratic Institutions and Variability of Economic Growth in Pakistan: Some Evidence from the Time-series Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Zakaria

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Bashir Ahmed Fida

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad.)

Abstract

This paper explores the empirical association between democracy and per capita output growth in Pakistan using data for the period 1947 to 2006. The findings of the paper indicate a weak negative association between democracy and output growth. Consistent with some current empirical literature, democracy is also found to influence output growth indirectly. The empirical results are robust to different democracy variables and output growth equation specifications. The empirical findings also highlight the role of other variables in determining output growth and, except for rising oil prices, show its positive linkage to physical and human capital, government consumption, openness of trade practices and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2009. "Democratic Institutions and Variability of Economic Growth in Pakistan: Some Evidence from the Time-series Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 269-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:269-289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2009/Volume3/269-289.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feng, Yi, 1997. "Democracy, Political Stability and Economic Growth," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 391-418, July.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. "Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
    4. Arellano, Manuel, 1993. "On the testing of correlated effects with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 87-97, September.
    5. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1982. "Directly Unproductive, Profit-seeking (DUP) Activities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 988-1002, October.
    6. Zafar Iqbal & Ghulam Mustafa Zahid, 1998. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 125-148.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1996. "Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Adam Przeworski & Fernando Limongi, 1993. "Political Regimes and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 51-69, Summer.
    9. Dani Rodrik & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 50-55, May.
    10. Amjad,Rashid, 2008. "Private Industrial Investment in Pakistan," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521053617, September.
    11. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    12. Matthew A. Baum & David A. Lake, 2003. "The Political Economy of Growth: Democracy and Human Capital," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 333-347, April.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    14. Shahnawaz Malik & Mahmood-ul-Hassan & Shahzad Hussain, 2006. "Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 845-854.
    15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    16. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    17. Durham, J Benson, 1999. "Economic Growth and Political Regimes," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 81-111, March.
    18. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    19. Heitor Almeida & Daniel Ferreira, 2002. "Democracy and the Variability of Economic Performance," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 225-257, November.
    20. Mohsin S. Khan, 2005. "Human Capital and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 455-478.
    21. Raaj Kumar Sah, 1991. "Fallibility in Human Organizations and Political Systems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 67-88, Spring.
    22. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1998. "Democracy, Economic Freedom, Fiscal Policy, and Growth in LDCs: A Fresh Look," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(4), pages 677-696, July.
    23. Zafar Iqbal & Abdus Sattar, 2005. "The Contribution of Workers’Remittances to Economic Growth in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2005:187, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    24. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    25. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1995. "Democracy and Development: New Thinking on an Old Question," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.
    26. Hristos Doucouliagos & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2008. "Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta‐Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 61-83, January.
    27. Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June.
    28. John McMillan & Gordon C. Rausser & Stanley R. Johnson, 1993. "Freedoms and Economic Growth: Transitional and Permanent Components," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 93-wp115, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    29. repec:bla:jecsur:v:11:y:1997:i:2:p:163-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Pranab Bardhan, 1993. "Symposium on Democracy and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 45-49, Summer.
    31. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    32. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    33. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
    34. Minier, Jenny A, 1998. "Democracy and Growth: Alternative Approaches," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 241-266, September.
    35. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    36. Olson, Mancur, 1993. "Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 567-576, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Consequences of Political Instability, Governance and Bureaucratic Corruption on Inflation and Growth: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 773-807.
    2. Younis, Fizza, 2015. "Institutional Change and Economic Growth in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nilofer, Nilofer & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth in Pakistan: The ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 86961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    4. Kebede, Selamawit G. & Heshmati, Almas, 2023. "Political Economy of Industrialization and Industrial Parks in Ethiopia," IZA Discussion Papers 15846, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Younis, Fizza, 2015. "Institutional Quality, Foreign Aid and Economic Performance," MPRA Paper 74147, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey Edwards & Frank Thames, 2010. "Growth volatility and the interaction between economic and political development," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 183-201, August.
    2. Jian-Guang Shen, 2002. "Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach," Development and Comp Systems 0212002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shen, Jian-Guang, 2002. "Democracy and growth : An alternative empirical approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carl Henrik Knutsen, 2012. "Democracy and economic growth: A survey of arguments and results," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 393-415, December.
    6. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2008. "Democratisation and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1520-1551, October.
    7. Jian-Guang Shen, 2003. "Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach," Macroeconomics 0303008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Colagrossi, Marco & Rossignoli, Domenico & Maggioni, Mario A., 2020. "Does democracy cause growth? A meta-analysis (of 2000 regressions)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Sima, Di & Huang, Fali, 2023. "Is democracy good for growth? — Development at political transition time matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Sen, Kunal & Pritchett, Lant & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2016. "Democracy Versus Dictatorship? The Political Determinants of Growth Episodes," Working Paper Series rwp17-009, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Sugata Ghosh & Andros Gregoriou & Anirban Mitra, 2013. "On the Role of Democracy in the Ethnicity-Growth Relationship: Theory and Evidence," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 13-02, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
    13. Jeffry A. Jacob & Thomas Osang, 2018. "Democracy And Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 41-80, August.
    14. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Madeeha Gohar Qureshi & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2012. "The Inter-linkages between Democracy and Per Capita GDP Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2012:85, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    16. Muhammad Ishtiaq & Muhammad Tariq Majeed & Muhammad Sohail, 2016. "Financial Sector, Democracy and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 437-453.
    17. Pettersson, Jan, 2003. "Democracy, Consolidation and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2004.
    18. Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Sekkat, Khalid, 2022. "A time to throw stones, a time to reap: how long does it take for democratic transitions to improve institutional outcomes?," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 429-443, June.
    19. Celal Kucuker, 2003. "Türkiye Ýktisat Kongresi Büyüme Stratejileri Çalýþma Grubu," Working Papers 2003/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    20. Hibrahim Limi Kouotou & Boniface Ngah Epo, 2022. "Duration of heads of state in power and economic growth: a Sub-Saharan African tale," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1153-1170.
    21. Andreas Assiotis & Kevin Sylwester, 2013. "Do the effects of corruption upon growth differ between democracies and autocracies?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 06-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; Growth; Time-series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:3:p:269-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.