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IMF conditionality, export structure and economic complexity:The ineffectiveness of structural adjustment programs

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  • Demir, Firat

Abstract

The conditionality requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been a source of intense debate since the early 1980s. These conditions, which are attached to IMF lending programs, cover a variety of issues from fiscal and monetary reform to economic liberalization and institutional change. In this paper we empirically examined the effects of IMF programs and conditionality requirements on structural transformation through changes in the technology-and-skill intensity and overall economic complexity of exports. Our empirical methodology accounted for policy and conditionality heterogeneity across country and time and accounts for the endogeneity of IMF programs and conditions. The empirical results suggest that IMF programs and conditionality requirements along a spectrum of policy areas had no robust or significant effect on export structure, economic complexity or export diversification. Overall, we found no evidence of any positive effects of IMF programs or IMF conditionality requirements on the technology-and-skill intensity of exports.

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  • Demir, Firat, 2022. "IMF conditionality, export structure and economic complexity:The ineffectiveness of structural adjustment programs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 750-767.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:50:y:2022:i:3:p:750-767
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2022.04.003
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    2. Ablam Estel Apeti & Kwamivi Gomado, 2023. "IMF conditionality and structural reforms: Evidence from developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF programs; IMF conditionality; Structural change; Export sophistication; Economic complexity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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