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Does the one-child policy improve children's human capital in urban China? A regression discontinuity design

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  • Qin, Xuezheng
  • Zhuang, Castiel Chen
  • Yang, Rudai

Abstract

This paper is the first to examine the causal relationship between China's One-Child Policy (OCP) and the long-term accumulation of human capital by a regression discontinuity design. Based on the 2005 China Inter-census Survey data, we observe a strong policy shock upon the probability of being a single child among people born around the starting point of OCP, which in turn significantly increases their educational attainment in adulthood. The results strongly suggest that there exists a quantity-quality trade-off as renewed by Becker, and the trade-off is more pronounced in the economically less developed regions and among families with the same-sex children. The results shed light on the re-understanding of China's family planning initiative as well as the application of regression discontinuity designs.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Xuezheng & Zhuang, Castiel Chen & Yang, Rudai, 2017. "Does the one-child policy improve children's human capital in urban China? A regression discontinuity design," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 287-303.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:45:y:2017:i:2:p:287-303
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2016.09.001
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    5. Keisuke Kawata & Mizuki Komura, 2023. "Only-child matching penalty in the marriage market," Discussion Paper Series 254, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    6. Yi Chen & Hanming Fang, 2018. "The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Shuai Zhao, 2023. "Family Size and Intergenerational Inequality: Evidence from China's One-child Policy," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 283-307, January.
    8. Tian, Xu & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2020. "Are only children in China more likely to be obese/overweight than their counterparts with siblings?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    9. Deng, Xin & Yu, Mingzhe, 2021. "Does the marginal child increase household debt? – Evidence from the new fertility policy in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
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    11. Chen, Yi & Huang, Yingfei, 2018. "The Power of the Government: China's Family Planning Leading. Group and the Fertility Decline since 1970," GLO Discussion Paper Series 204, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.
    13. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    15. Yue Sun & Liqiu Zhao & Zhong Zhao, 2024. "Hukou Status and Children’s Education in China," Working Papers 2024-004, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    16. Cai, Xiqian & Fan, Qingliang & Yuan, Congying, 2022. "The impact of only child peers on students’ cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    20. Anh P. Ngo, 2020. "Effects of Vietnam’s two-child policy on fertility, son preference, and female labor supply," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 751-794, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    One-child policy; Quantity-quality trade-off; Regression discontinuity design; Human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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