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Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking

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  • Baele, Lieven
  • De Bruyckere, Valerie
  • De Jonghe, Olivier
  • Vander Vennet, Rudi

Abstract

This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to examine the driving factors of equity returns of US Bank Holding Companies. BMA has as an advantage over OLS that it accounts for the considerable uncertainty about the correct set (model) of bank risk factors. We find that out of a broad set of 12risk factors only the market, real estate, and high-minus-low Fama–French factors are reliably related to US bank stock returns over the period 1986–2010. Other factors are either only relevant over specific subperiods or for subsets of bank holding companies. We discuss the implications of our findings for empirical banking research.

Suggested Citation

  • Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2015. "Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:53:y:2015:i:c:p:49-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.11.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Kronen, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on macro variables - An SVAR-based empirical analysis for EU countries," ROME Working Papers 201711, ROME Network.
    2. Paulo Garrido & Pedro Campos & André Dias, 2015. "Balance Sheet Analysis Of Credit And Debt Networks," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(05n06), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    4. Simon Quemin, 2016. "Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity aversion in a cap and trade," Working Papers 1604, Chaire Economie du climat.
    5. repec:eee:ejores:v:264:y:2018:i:1:p:280-293 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:302-313 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00517 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jean-Loup SOULA, 2015. "Measuring heterogeneity in bank liquidity risk: who are the winners and the losers?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2015-09, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    9. Pelster, Matthias & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2016. "The determinants of CDS spreads: Evidence from the model space," Discussion Papers 43/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Mulier, Klaas, 2017. "Bank sectoral concentration and (systemic) risk: Evidence from a worldwide sample of banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Average; Banking risk; Bank stock returns;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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