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Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us

  • Kay Giesecke

    ()

    (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Baeho Kim

    ()

    (Korea University Business School, Anam-dong, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul 136-701, Korea)

Registered author(s):

    This paper develops dynamic measures of the systemic risk of the financial sector as a whole. It defines systemic risk as the conditional probability of failure of a sufficiently large fraction of the total population of financial institutions. This definition recognizes that the cause of systemic distress is the correlated failure of institutions to meet obligations to creditors, customers, and trading partners. The likelihood estimators of the failure probability are based on a dynamic hazard model of correlated failure timing that captures the influence on failure timing of time-varying macroeconomic and sector-specific risk factors, and of spillover effects. Tests indicate that our measures provide accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the term structure of systemic risk in the United States for the period from 1998 to 2009. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1375
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    Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

    Volume (Year): 57 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 1387-1405

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    Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:8:p:1387-1405
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    1. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
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    3. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    4. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
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    7. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
    8. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
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    10. AfDB AfDB, 2010. "Working Paper Series – Author Guidelines," Working Paper Series 357, African Development Bank.
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    15. Cooperman, Elizabeth S & Lee, Winson B & Wolfe, Glenn A, 1992. " The 1985 Ohio Thrift Crisis, the FSLIC's Solvency, and Rate Contagion for Retail CDs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 919-41, July.
    16. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
    17. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    18. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    19. Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1983. "Contagion Effects of Bank Failures: Evidence from Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 305-22, July.
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    23. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
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    25. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    26. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The END; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
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