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Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us

Author

Listed:
  • Kay Giesecke

    () (Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305)

  • Baeho Kim

    () (Korea University Business School, Anam-dong, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul 136-701, Korea)

Abstract

This paper develops dynamic measures of the systemic risk of the financial sector as a whole. It defines systemic risk as the conditional probability of failure of a sufficiently large fraction of the total population of financial institutions. This definition recognizes that the cause of systemic distress is the correlated failure of institutions to meet obligations to creditors, customers, and trading partners. The likelihood estimators of the failure probability are based on a dynamic hazard model of correlated failure timing that captures the influence on failure timing of time-varying macroeconomic and sector-specific risk factors, and of spillover effects. Tests indicate that our measures provide accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the term structure of systemic risk in the United States for the period from 1998 to 2009. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:8:p:1387-1405
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1375
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Baeho, 2014. "Systematic cyclicality of systemic bubbles: Evidence from the U.S. commercial banking system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 281-297.
    3. repec:spr:busres:v:10:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s40685-016-0041-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:kap:compec:v:51:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-016-9632-x is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Carlos Castro & Juan S. Ordoñez & Sergio Preciado, 2016. "Network externalities across financial institutions," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 014287, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
    6. Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2015. "Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-66.
    7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Schaumburg, Julia & Schienle, Melanie, 2014. "Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 781-794.
    8. García-Céspedes, Rubén & Moreno, Manuel, 2014. "Estimating the distribution of total default losses on the Spanish financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 242-261.
    9. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
    10. repec:eee:joecas:v:16:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Patrick W Saart & Jiti Gao & Nam Hyun Kim, 2014. "Econometric Time Series Specification Testing in a Class of Multiplicative Error Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Qi, Min & Zhang, Xiaofei & Zhao, Xinlei, 2014. "Unobserved systematic risk factor and default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 216-227.
    13. Agosto, Arianna & Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2016. "Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX)," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 640-663.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:525-542 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Akio Hattori & Kentaro Kikuchi & Fuminori Niwa & Yoshihiko Uchida, 2014. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Measures: Methodology and Application to the Japanese Market," IMES Discussion Paper Series 14-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    16. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2014. "Nowcasting and forecasting global financial sector stress and credit market dislocation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 741-758.
    17. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "On bank credit risk: systemic or bank-specific? Evidence from the US and UK," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 951, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Minca Andreea & Sulem Agnès, 2014. "Optimal control of interbank contagion under complete information," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Avramidis, Panagiotis & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2015. "Calculating systemic risk capital: A factor model approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 138-150.
    20. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s12197-015-9341-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Madan, Dilip B. & Schoutens, Wim, 2013. "Systemic risk tradeoffs and option prices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 222-230.
    22. Drehmann, Mathias & Tarashev, Nikola, 2013. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 586-607.
    23. Jin, Yi & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2014. "Banking risk and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 350-360.
    24. Bo, Lijun & Capponi, Agostino, 2015. "Counterparty risk for CDS: Default clustering effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 29-42.
    25. Gao, Jiti & Kim, Nam Hyun & Saart, Patrick W., 2015. "A misspecification test for multiplicative error models of non-negative time series processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 346-359.

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