IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v91y2024ics1042443124000106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Firm-level political risk and equity issuance

Author

Listed:
  • Rahman, Dewan
  • Haque, Anamul
  • Kabir, Muhammad
  • Bin Hasan, Shehub

Abstract

We examine whether firm-level political risk influences the issuance of equity (debt) to finance corporate investment. With a sample of 64,693 firm-quarter observations from 2002 to 2020, we find that firm-level political risk is significantly and positively associated with subsequent equity issuance as opposed to debt issuance. To mitigate endogeneity, we estimate firm fixed-effects regression, perform nearest-neighbor score matching technique and Heckman’s (1979) two-step correction procedure, and employ gubernatorial elections in different states of the U.S. as a shock to the firm-level political risk. We also test for two potential economic mechanisms, financial flexibility and information asymmetry, and find that our baseline results are more pronounced for these channels. Our study presents new evidence on firms’ financing choices in the presence of firm-level political risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Dewan & Haque, Anamul & Kabir, Muhammad & Bin Hasan, Shehub, 2024. "Firm-level political risk and equity issuance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s1042443124000106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443124000106
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101944?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hovakimian, Armen & Opler, Tim & Titman, Sheridan, 2001. "The Debt-Equity Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    4. Lemmon, Michael L. & Zender, Jaime F., 2010. "Debt Capacity and Tests of Capital Structure Theories," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1161-1187, October.
    5. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Bouslimi, Lobna & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Zhong, Rui, 2020. "Political uncertainty and the choice of debt sources," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Kim, Olivia S., 2019. "Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2141-2178, October.
    7. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim & Egon Zakrajsek, 2013. "Misallocation and Financial Market Frictions: Some Direct Evidence from the Dispersion in Borrowing Costs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 159-176, January.
    8. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    9. Çolak, Gönül & Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Öztekin, Özde, 2018. "Global leverage adjustments, uncertainty, and country institutional strength," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 41-56.
    10. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    11. Fosu, Samuel & Danso, Albert & Ahmad, Wasim & Coffie, William, 2016. "Information asymmetry, leverage and firm value: Do crisis and growth matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 140-150.
    12. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    13. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    14. Çolak, Gönül & Durnev, Art & Qian, Yiming, 2017. "Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2523-2564, December.
    15. Michael Faulkender & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2006. "Does the Source of Capital Affect Capital Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 45-79.
    16. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    17. Lewis, Craig M. & Tan, Yongxian, 2016. "Debt-equity choices, R&D investment and market timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 599-610.
    18. Karthik Balakrishnan & Mary Brooke Billings & Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2014. "Shaping Liquidity: On the Causal Effects of Voluntary Disclosure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2237-2278, October.
    19. Andrea Gamba & Alexander Triantis, 2008. "The Value of Financial Flexibility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2263-2296, October.
    20. Frank, Murray Z. & Goyal, Vidhan K., 2003. "Testing the pecking order theory of capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 217-248, February.
    21. Pham, Anh Viet, 2019. "Political risk and cost of equity: The mediating role of political connections," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-87.
    22. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    23. Soku Byoun, 2021. "Financial flexibility demand and corporate financial decisions," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 481-509, August.
    24. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    25. Jonathan Brogaard & Lili Dai & Phong T H Ngo & Bohui Zhang, 2020. "Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1737-1780.
    26. Gyimah, Daniel & Danso, Albert & Adu-Ameyaw, Emmanuel & Boateng, Agyenim, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and corporate leverage decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    27. Jonathan Brogaard & Lili Dai & Phong T H Ngo & Bohui Zhang, 2020. "Global Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1737-1780.
    28. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    29. Shehub Bin Hasan & Md Samsul Alam & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati & Md Shahidul Islam, 2022. "Does firm-level political risk affect cash holdings?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 311-337, July.
    30. Huang, Guan-Ying & Shen, Carl Hsin-han & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and debt choice," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    31. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    32. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    33. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
    34. John R. Graham, 2000. "How Big Are the Tax Benefits of Debt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1901-1941, October.
    35. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    36. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    37. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    38. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    39. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    40. Jang, Soomi & Choi, Heeick & Kim, Hyung Tae (Ted), 2023. "Firm-level political risk and external financing choices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    41. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. de Jong, Abe & Verbeek, Marno & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2011. "Firms' debt-equity decisions when the static tradeoff theory and the pecking order theory disagree," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1303-1314, May.
    43. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Levy, Amnon, 2003. "Capital structure choice: macroeconomic conditions and financial constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 75-109, April.
    44. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    45. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    46. Gatchev, Vladimir A. & Spindt, Paul A. & Tarhan, Vefa, 2009. "How do firms finance their investments?: The relative importance of equity issuance and debt contracting costs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-195, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    2. Çolak, Gönül & Gungoraydinoglu, Ali & Öztekin, Özde, 2018. "Global leverage adjustments, uncertainty, and country institutional strength," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 41-56.
    3. Shoaib Ali & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Relationship between Credit Rating, Capital Structure and Earning Management Behaviour: Evidence from Pakistani Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:121, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    4. Elif Acar & Gamze Vural & Emin Hüseyin Çetenak, 2020. "Evidence for Financial Hierarchy Theory in Capital Structure Decisions: Data from BIST Companies," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 29-50.
    5. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    6. Tatiana Didier & Ross Levine & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2015. "Capital Market Financing, Firm Growth, and Firm Size Distribution," Working Papers 172015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Elsas, Ralf & Florysiak, David, 2008. "Empirical Capital Structure Research: New Ideas, Recent Evidence, and Methodological Issues," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4743, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    8. Murat Kizildag & Ozgur Ozdemir, 2017. "Underlying factors of ups and downs in financial leverage overtime," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 1321-1342, September.
    9. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    10. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Didier Brandao,Tatiana & Levine,Ross Eric & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2015. "Capital market financing, firm growth, and firm size distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7353, The World Bank.
    12. Wu, Xueping & Au Yeung, Chau Kin, 2012. "Firm growth type and capital structure persistence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3427-3443.
    13. Rebel A. Cole, 2013. "What Do We Know about the Capital Structure of Privately Held US Firms? Evidence from the Surveys of Small Business Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 777-813, December.
    14. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Bottazzi, Laura & Golinelli, Roberto, 2020. "A multilevel index of heterogeneous short-term and long-term debt dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Dang, Viet Anh, 2013. "An empirical analysis of zero-leverage firms: New evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 189-202.
    16. Khawaja, Mohsin & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Ashraf, Dawood, 2019. "Ownership and control in a double decision framework for raising capital," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    17. Gyimah, Daniel & Danso, Albert & Adu-Ameyaw, Emmanuel & Boateng, Agyenim, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and corporate leverage decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Maria Elena Bontempi & Laura Bottazzi & Roberto Golinelli, 2015. "ynamic corporate capital structure behavior:empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity," Working Papers 537, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    19. Chauhan, Gaurav Singh & Huseynov, Fariz, 2018. "Corporate financing and target behavior: New tests and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 840-856.
    20. Bajaj, Yukti & Kashiramka, Smita & Singh, Shveta, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and leverage dynamics: Evidence from an emerging economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm-level political risk; Capital structure; Equity issuance; Financial flexibility; Information asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s1042443124000106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.