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Walking away from a low-carbon economy? Recent and historical trends using a regional decomposition analysis

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  • Mundaca T., Luis
  • Markandya, Anil
  • Nørgaard, Jørgen

Abstract

Using the latest available data, this brief article attempts to provide the first regional decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Covering eight regions of the world, determinants are estimated in relative and absolute terms for the period 1971–2010. We use the unparalleled 2010 global surge in CO2 emissions as a reference and entry point for the analysis. Overall, results show that most regions have recently performed worse than their historical trends and lack of meaningful progress is identified. Whereas specific drivers for certain regions suggest some level of continuous improvement (e.g. reduced energy intensity in Asia, decarbonisation of of energy supply in OECD Europe), they are incapable of offsetting the effects of economic growth and increased energy use. With the exception of Africa, most regions appear to have missed the ‘low-carbon economy opportunity’ provided by the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Results suggest a lack of serious environmental effectiveness of regional policy portfolios aiming at reducing CO2 emissions. Highly ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy policies across all regions are immediately needed. Additionally, absolute reductions in energy use from fossil fuels and resulting CO2 emissions are urgently required in rich regions if we are to align production and consumption patterns with maintaining global warming below the 2°C threshold.

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  • Mundaca T., Luis & Markandya, Anil & Nørgaard, Jørgen, 2013. "Walking away from a low-carbon economy? Recent and historical trends using a regional decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1471-1480.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:1471-1480
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.083
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    5. Saunders, Harry D. & Roy, Joyashree & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Chakravarty, Debalina & Dasgupta, Shyamasree & De La Rue Du Can, Stephane & Druckman, Angela & Fouquet, Roger & Grubb, Michael & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Energy efficiency: what has research delivered in the last 40 years?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    7. Mundaca, Luis & Luth Richter, Jessika, 2015. "Assessing ‘green energy economy’ stimulus packages: Evidence from the U.S. programs targeting renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1174-1186.
    8. Henriques, Sofia Teives & Borowiecki, Karol Jan, 2014. "The Drivers of Long-run CO2 Emissions: A Global Perspective since 1800," Discussion Papers on Economics 13/2014, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    9. Henriques, Sofia Teives & Borowiecki, Karol J., 2017. "The drivers of long-run CO2 emissions in Europe, North America and Japan since 1800," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 537-549.
    10. Cansino, José M. & Román, Rocío & Ordóñez, Manuel, 2016. "Main drivers of changes in CO2 emissions in the Spanish economy: A structural decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 150-159.
    11. Cansino, José M. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Rodríguez-Arévalo, María L., 2015. "Driving forces of Spain׳s CO2 emissions: A LMDI decomposition approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 749-759.
    12. Mundaca, Luis & Markandya, Anil, 2016. "Assessing regional progress towards a ‘Green Energy Economy’," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1372-1394.
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    15. Mundaca, Luis & Román, Rocio & Cansino, José M., 2015. "Towards a Green Energy Economy? A macroeconomic-climate evaluation of Sweden’s CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 196-209.

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