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Economic development and the demand for energy: A historical perspective on the next 20 years

Author

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  • Rühl, Christof
  • Appleby, Paul
  • Fennema, Julian
  • Naumov, Alexander
  • Schaffer, Mark

Abstract

This paper draws on evidence from the last two centuries of industrialisation, analysing the evolution of energy intensity over the long- and short-run. We argue that the increased specialisation of the fuel mix, coupled with accelerating convergence of both the sectoral and technological composition of economies, will continue to improve energy intensity of economic output and to reduce the reliance on any single energy resource. This analysis suggests that even high growth in per capita income over the next 20 years need not be constrained by resource availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Rühl, Christof & Appleby, Paul & Fennema, Julian & Naumov, Alexander & Schaffer, Mark, 2012. "Economic development and the demand for energy: A historical perspective on the next 20 years," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 109-116.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:109-116
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.039
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    2. repec:wfo:wstudy:47187 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Victor Court & Florian Fizaine, 2015. "Estimations of very long-term time series of global energy return-on-investment (EROI) of coal, oil and gas productions," Working Papers 1510, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. repec:eee:rensus:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:1261-1271 is not listed on IDEAS
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    7. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    8. Friedrichs, Jörg & Inderwildi, Oliver R., 2013. "The carbon curse: Are fuel rich countries doomed to high CO2 intensities?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1356-1365.
    9. Wesley Burnett, J. & Madariaga, Jessica, 2017. "The convergence of U.S. state-level energy intensity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-370.
    10. Zeus Guevara & Tânia Sousa & Tiago Domingos, 2016. "Insights on Energy Transitions in Mexico from the Analysis of Useful Exergy 1971–2009," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(7), pages 1-29, June.

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