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Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios

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  • Liddle, Brantley

Abstract

This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity trends for OECD countries over 1960–2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy–GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Alternatively, the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s played a role in many of the countries that experienced inverted-V breaks. These findings have implications for future modeling and forecasting of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.

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  • Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 502-509.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:45:y:2012:i:c:p:502-509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.061
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    7. Weideman, J. & Inglesi-Lotz, R. & Van Heerden, J., 2017. "Structural breaks in renewable energy in South Africa: A Bai & Perron break test application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 945-954.
    8. Liddle, Brantley & Messinis, George, 2015. "Revisiting sulfur Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: Substantial evidence of inverted-Us/Vs for individual OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 278-285.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy intensity; Endogenous structural breaks; Oil crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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