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Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios

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  • Liddle, Brantley

Abstract

This paper uses the econometrics of endogenous structural breaks to examine changes in energy intensity trends for OECD countries over 1960–2009. Nearly all OECD countries currently have significant negatively trending energy–GDP ratios; but for several countries those negative trends are recent, and two countries have recent significant positive trends. For several countries, energy intensity had a significant positive trend followed by a break and then a significant negative trend. Those break-dates, however, appear to have little to do with level of development (GDP per capita). Alternatively, the volatile energy prices of the 1970s and early 1980s played a role in many of the countries that experienced inverted-V breaks. These findings have implications for future modeling and forecasting of energy consumption as well as for the role of energy price policy in developed and developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 502-509.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:45:y:2012:i:c:p:502-509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.061
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaco P. Weideman & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Renewable Energy in South Africa: A Bai and Perron Break Test Application," Working Papers 201636, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Liddle, Brantley & Messinis, George, 2015. "Revisiting sulfur Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: Substantial evidence of inverted-Us/Vs for individual OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 278-285.
    3. Brantley Liddle & George Messinis, 2018. "Revisiting carbon Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: evidence of decoupling and saturation (but few inverted-Us) for individual OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 783-798, March.
    4. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    5. repec:eee:rensus:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:945-954 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lo Giudice Gino Moncada & Francesco Asdrubali & Antonella Rotili, 2013. "Influence of new fac tors on global energy prospects in the medium term: compar ison among the 2010, 2011 and 2012 editions of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook reports," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(3), pages 67-89.
    7. Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Simo-Kengne, Beatrice & Smithers, Devon & Trembling, Amy, 2015. "Renewable energy and growth: Evidence from heterogeneous panel of G7 countries using Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1405-1412.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy intensity; Endogenous structural breaks; Oil crises;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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