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Trends and Breaks in Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028

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  • Markku Lanne
  • Matti Liski

Abstract

We consider per-capita carbon dioxide emission trends in 16 early industrialized countries over the period 1870-2028. Using a multiple-break time series method we find more evidence for very early downturns in per-capita trends than for late downturns during the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Only for two countries do downturns in trends imply downward sloping stable trends. We also consider trends in emission composition and find little evidence for in-sample peaks for emissions from liquid and gaseous fuel uses. These results lead us to reject the oil price shocks as events causing permanent breaks in the structure and level of emissions, a conclusion often made in analyses using shorter postwar data.

Suggested Citation

  • Markku Lanne & Matti Liski, 2004. "Trends and Breaks in Per-Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1870-2028," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(4), pages 41-65, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:25:y:2004:i:4:p:41-65
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No4-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; oil price shocks; breaks and trends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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