IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v182y2022icp879-886.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural changes and trends in China's renewable electricity production in the policy evolution process

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Yuan
  • Shi, Rui
  • Zhang, Chen
  • He, Yanmin
  • Jiang, Hongyi
  • Kubota, Jumpei

Abstract

This study employs the econometrics test of endogenous structural breaks to separately investigate the changes in trends of the share of hydropower and non-hydro renewable power in electricity production for China using two separate sub-panels of data spanning from 1971 to 2015 and 1990–2015. To identify structural changes in each renewable power generation series, we apply the Bai and Perron procedure for determining structural breaks to estimate shifting-mean autoregressions and use the low frequency Fourier-type Lagrange Multiplier test to approximate the time series in a non-linear form. Through these tests, our empirical results reveal that the series under investigation are characteristic of segmented trend stationary processes around four or one structural breaks, among which, there are two upward shifts in the 45-year series of hydroelectricity generation occurring in 1978 and 2008, respectively. Meanwhile, one upward shift is identified in the 26-years series of non-hydro renewable generation occurring in 2005. The patterns in the timing of structural changes are suggestive of the causal effects from the recent regulatory shocks and policy change. In the present study, we conduct an innovative attempt to reveal the relevance of renewable energy and policy changes, which may also provide some empirical value in investigating the effect of policy series on renewable energy in other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Yuan & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Chen & He, Yanmin & Jiang, Hongyi & Kubota, Jumpei, 2022. "Structural changes and trends in China's renewable electricity production in the policy evolution process," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 879-886.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:182:y:2022:i:c:p:879-886
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.052
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812101510X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.052?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Zhou, Sheng & Tong, Qing & Yu, Sha & Wang, Yu & Chai, Qimin & Zhang, Xiliang, 2012. "Role of non-fossil energy in meeting China's energy and climate target for 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 14-19.
    3. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Structural breaks and energy efficiency in Fiji," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3959-3966, October.
    4. Liu, Yingqi & Kokko, Ari, 2010. "Wind power in China: Policy and development challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5520-5529, October.
    5. Jaforullah, Mohammad & King, Alan, 2015. "Does the use of renewable energy sources mitigate CO2 emissions? A reassessment of the US evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 711-717.
    6. Polzin, Friedemann & Egli, Florian & Steffen, Bjarne & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2019. "How do policies mobilize private finance for renewable energy?—A systematic review with an investor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1249-1268.
    7. Schmidt, Tobias S. & Schneider, Malte & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2012. "Decarbonising the power sector via technological change – differing contributions from heterogeneous firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 466-479.
    8. Seel, Joachim & Barbose, Galen L. & Wiser, Ryan H., 2014. "An analysis of residential PV system price differences between the United States and Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 216-226.
    9. Wang, Yuan & Li, Li & Kubota, Jumpei & Zhu, Xiaodong & Lu, Genfa, 2016. "Are fluctuations in Japan’s consumption of non-fossil energy permanent or transitory?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 187-196.
    10. del Río, Pablo & Mir-Artigues, Pere, 2012. "Support for solar PV deployment in Spain: Some policy lessons," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5557-5566.
    11. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    12. Zhang, Huiming & Li, Lianshui & Cao, Jie & Zhao, Mengnan & Wu, Qing, 2011. "Comparison of renewable energy policy evolution among the BRICs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4904-4909.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Chen, Yufang, 2019. "Impacts of policies on innovation in wind power technologies in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 682-691.
    14. Rogge, Karoline S. & Reichardt, Kristin, 2016. "Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: An extended concept and framework for analysis," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1620-1635.
    15. Zhang, Huiming & Zhou, Dequn & Cao, Jie, 2011. "A quantitative assessment of energy strategy evolution in China and US," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 886-890, January.
    16. Wang, Feng & Yin, Haitao & Li, Shoude, 2010. "China's renewable energy policy: Commitments and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1872-1878, April.
    17. Delmas, Magali A. & Montes-Sancho, Maria J., 2011. "U.S. state policies for renewable energy: Context and effectiveness," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2273-2288, May.
    18. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    19. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    20. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2012. "Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? an Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 659-673.
    21. Wang, Qiang & Chen, Xi, 2012. "China's electricity market-oriented reform: From an absolute to a relative monopoly," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 143-148.
    22. Schuman, Sara & Lin, Alvin, 2012. "China's Renewable Energy Law and its impact on renewable power in China: Progress, challenges and recommendations for improving implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-109.
    23. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "Breaks and trends in OECD countries' energy–GDP ratios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 502-509.
    24. Cai, Yifei & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-334.
    25. Zeng, Ming & Li, Chen & Zhou, Lisha, 2013. "Progress and prospective on the police system of renewable energy in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 36-44.
    26. Erdogan, Sinan & Akalin, Guray & Oypan, Oguz, 2020. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption transitory or permanent in Turkey? New evidence from fourier panel KPSS test," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Jie & Lv, Tao & Hou, Xiaoran & Deng, Xu & Li, Na & Liu, Feng, 2022. "Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of renewable energy production in China: A spatial econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Li, Zekai & Hu, Xi & Guo, Huan & Xiong, Xin, 2023. "A novel Weighted Average Weakening Buffer Operator based Fractional order accumulation Seasonal Grouping Grey Model for predicting the hydropower generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    3. Biqing Li & Qiuting Liu & Yuming Li & Shiyong Zheng, 2023. "Socioeconomic Productive Capacity and Renewable Energy Development: Empirical Insights from BRICS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weideman, J. & Inglesi-Lotz, R. & Van Heerden, J., 2017. "Structural breaks in renewable energy in South Africa: A Bai & Perron break test application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 945-954.
    2. Luo, Shikong & Yan, Xinyan & Yang, Haoyi, 2021. "Let’s take a smooth break: Stock return predictability revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 300-314.
    3. Janesh Sami, 2020. "Time Series Dynamics of Sugar Export Earnings in Fiji with Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks: Implications for EU Sugar and Industry Reforms," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 169-189, March.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    5. Jaco P. Weideman & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Renewable Energy in South Africa: A Bai and Perron Break Test Application," Working Papers 201636, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    7. Martin B. Schmidt, 2021. "On the evolution of athlete anthropometric measurements: racial integration, expansion, and steroids," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3419-3443, December.
    8. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "A new approach to energy consumption per capita stationarity: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 332-344.
    9. Jing-Ping Li & Omid Ranjbar & Tsangyao Chang, 2017. "Unemployment Hysteresis In Piigs Countries: A New Test With Both Sharp And Smooth Breaks," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1165-1177, December.
    10. Christopoulos, Dimitris & McAdam, Peter, 2017. "Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-61.
    11. Cai, Yifei & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-334.
    12. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula & Atoi, Ngozi V, 2019. "Are inflation rates in OECD countries actually stationary during 2011-2018? Evidence based on Fourier Nonlinear Unit root tests with Break," MPRA Paper 93937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Seda Yıldırım & Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım & Seda H. Bostancı & Elif Nur Tarı, 2022. "Winner or loser? The asymmetric role of natural resource rents on financial development among resource‐rich countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1921-1933, December.
    14. Fatma Kızılkaya, 2022. "Investigating the Stationarity Properties of Oil Consumption: an Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 121-137, January.
    15. Li, Lili & Taeihagh, Araz, 2020. "An in-depth analysis of the evolution of the policy mix for the sustainable energy transition in China from 1981 to 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    16. Meng Xu & Avishai Ceder & Ziyou Gao & Wei Guan, 2010. "Mass transit systems of Beijing: governance evolution and analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 709-729, September.
    17. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Some Financial Implications of Global Warming: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 377, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 25 Dec 2017.
    18. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Wu, Tsung-Pao, 2017. "Purchasing Power Parity in the 34 OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile-Based Unit Root Tests with both Smooth and Sharp Breaks," MPRA Paper 81820, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2017.
    19. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
    20. Wang, Xinya & Liu, Huifang & Huang, Shupei, 2019. "Identification of the daily seasonality in gold returns and volatilities: Evidence from Shanghai and London," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 522-531.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:182:y:2022:i:c:p:879-886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.