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Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach

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  • Dodder, Rebecca S.
  • Kaplan, P. Ozge
  • Elobeid, Amani
  • Tokgoz, Simla
  • Secchi, Silvia
  • Kurkalova, Lyubov A.

Abstract

The accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10–20years and the implications for energy, agriculture, and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agriculture–energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, we can compare the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons show biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shift the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowers total ethanol production and raises ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices lead to lower CO2 emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario results in the highest CO2 trajectory relative to the baseline.

Suggested Citation

  • Dodder, Rebecca S. & Kaplan, P. Ozge & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Secchi, Silvia & Kurkalova, Lyubov A., 2015. "Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:77-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yongxi Ma & Lu Zhang & Shixiong Song & Shuao Yu, 2022. "Impacts of Energy Price on Agricultural Production, Energy Consumption, and Carbon Emission in China: A Price Endogenous Partial Equilibrium Model Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
    3. Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Bahn, Olivier & Levasseur, Annie, 2019. "The role of bioenergy in low-carbon energy transition scenarios: A case study for Quebec (Canada)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 24-34.
    4. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Chen, Qiu & Mirzabaev, Alisher, 2016. "Evaluating the Impacts of Traditional Biomass Energy Use on Agricultural Production in Sichuan, China," Discussion Papers 250213, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    6. Gouzaye, Amadou & Epplin, Francis M., 2016. "Land requirements, feedstock haul distance, and expected profit response to land use restrictions for switchgrass production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 59-66.
    7. Piotr Gołasa & Wioletta Bieńkowska-Gołasa & Magdalena Golonko & Paulina Trębska & Piotr Gradziuk & Arkadiusz Gromada & Marcin Wysokiński, 2022. "Sensitivity of the Agribusiness Sector to Sudden Changes in the Prices of Energy Carriers on the Example of Poland: Current State and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-10, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biofuel; Ethanol; Agriculture; Natural gas; Crude oil; Cellulosic; Carbon dioxide;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

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