Carbon lock-in and resource lock-in effects of machine substitution: Evidence from 54 countries

In the era of machine substitution for labor, accurately assessing the role of this substitution in carbon emissions and ecosystem impact is crucial for improving biased environmental policies. Drawing on panel data from 54 countries between 2005 and 2019, this study constructs a four-dimensional analytical framework and finds that: (1) the positive regression coefficients of machine substitution with carbon emissions and ecological footprints indicate that, in the long term and overall, machine substitution has carbon lock-in and resource lock-in effects. This conclusion is supported by a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. (2) Group regression reveals that the positive correlation of ecological elasticity is only significant in high-income and developed countries. In quantile regression, the larger the quantile of the explained variable, the greater the ecological elasticity coefficient. This indicates that the carbon lock-in and resource lock-in of machine substitution have an aggregating effect. (3) The prevalence of consumerism and the energy scissors difference are indirect factors for the carbon lock-in and resource lock-in caused by machine substitution, which are influenced by economic and income levels. (4) When exceeding a certain threshold, the carbon lock-in and resource lock-in of machine substitution have a non-linear effect of non-increasing marginality, suggesting that the negative effects of the prevalence of consumerism and the energy scissors difference are constrained by other factors. When implementing policies such as subsidies for smart appliances and electric vehicles, it is important to carefully balance the economic benefits with the environmental costs associated with consumerism