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Modeling Automation

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  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Pascual Restrepo

Abstract

This paper points out that modeling automation as factor-augmenting technological change has several unappealing implications. Instead, modeling it as the process of machines replacing tasks previously performed by labor is both descriptively realistic and leads to distinct and empirically plausible predictions. In contrast to factor-augmenting technological change, the substitution of machines for labor in additional tasks always reduces the labor share in national income and can reduce the equilibrium wage (for realistic parameter values). This approach to automation also enables a discussion of several new forces at work, including the introduction of new tasks, changes in the comparative advantage of labor relative to capital, the deepening of automation (whereby machines become more productive in tasks that are already automated), and the role of the elasticity of substitution and capital accumulation in the long-run adjustment of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "Modeling Automation," NBER Working Papers 24321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24321
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leone, Fabrizio, 2021. "Foreign Ownership and Robot Adoption," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2111, CEPREMAP.
    2. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Gentile, Elisabetta & Miroudot, Sébastien & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2020. "The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Harald Sander, 2019. "A European Policy Agenda in and for the New Global Economy," Book, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, edition 1, volume 1, number y:2019:v:1:ch:3:p:56-87 edited by Justin Yifu Lin & Alojzy Z. Nowak, June.
    4. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2021. "The complexity of the intangible digital economy: an agent-based model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 527-540.
    6. Ballestar, María Teresa & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Sainz, Jorge & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2021. "Impact of robotics on manufacturing: A longitudinal machine learning perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Ebeke, Christian H. & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "Automation and the employment elasticity of fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Alonso, Cristian & Berg, Andrew & Kothari, Siddharth & Papageorgiou, Chris & Rehman, Sidra, 2022. "Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 18-37.
    9. Leblebicioğlu, Asli & Weinberger, Ariel, 2021. "Openness and factor shares: Is globalization always bad for labor?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Jeffrey L. Furman & Florenta Teodoridis, 2020. "Automation, Research Technology, and Researchers’ Trajectories: Evidence from Computer Science and Electrical Engineering," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 330-354, March.
    11. David M. Williams, 2021. "Pay and Productivity in Canada: Growing Together, Only Slower than Ever," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 40, pages 3-26, Spring.
    12. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "The Effects of Reforming a Federal Employment Agency on Labor Demand," IZA Discussion Papers 14629, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2020. "Heterogeneous Relationships between Automation Technologies and Skilled Labor: Evidence from a Firm Survey," Discussion papers 20004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Capital-augmenting technical change in the context of untapped automation opportunities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 155-166.
    15. Zhu, Jun & Zhang, Jingting & Feng, Yiqing, 2022. "Hard budget constraints and artificial intelligence technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    16. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Takahashi, Harutaka & Le Riche, Antoine, 2021. "A dynamic theory of the declining aggregated labor income share: Intangible capital vs. tangible capital," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 104-118.
    18. Yasin Yilmaz, 2021. "Transition to the Digital Economy, Its Measurement and the Relationship between Digitalization and Productivity," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 283-316, June.
    19. Pang, Ziyun, 2022. "A Note on Economic Growth and Labor Automation," MPRA Paper 112457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Michele Fornino & Andrea Manera, 2022. "Automation and the Future of Work: Assessing the Role of Labor Flexibility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 282-321, July.
    21. Wacks, Johannes, 2021. "Labor Market Polarization with Hand-to-Mouth Households," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242391, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Laurie S. M. Reijnders & Marcel P. Timmer & Xianjia Ye, 2021. "Labour demand in global value chains: Is there a bias against unskilled work?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2547-2571, September.
    23. García-Vega, María, 2022. "R&D restructuring during the Great Recession and young firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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