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Modeling an immigration shock

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  • Boldrin, Michele
  • Montes, Ana

Abstract

In this paper, we model an overlapping generation economy affected by an unexpected immigration shock and determine how households may insure themselves against “immigration risk”. We use the model to study the impact of immigration on (i) the welfare of different generations, (ii) the distribution of income among factors of production, and (iii) the optimal design of the intergenerational welfare state. In particular, we construct a system of public education and public pensions that mimics the efficient complete market allocation. We also consider the impact of immigration shocks in a small open economy. In this case, our model suggests that the external capital flow can act as a substitute for the missing private insurance markets. Our analysis delivers a set of predictions that we find useful for understanding certain aspects of the Spanish experience between 1996 and 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Boldrin, Michele & Montes, Ana, 2015. "Modeling an immigration shock," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 190-206.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:74:y:2015:i:c:p:190-206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.11.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy J. Hatton & Massimiliano Tani, 2005. "Immigration and Inter-Regional Mobility in the UK, 1982-2000," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(507), pages 342-358, November.
    2. Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Rethinking the Gains from Immigration: Theory and Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 11672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    4. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
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    6. Mario Izquierdo & Juan Jimeno & Juan Rojas, 2010. "On the aggregate effects of immigration in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(4), pages 409-432, September.
    7. David Andolfatto & Martin Gervais, 2006. "Human Capital Investment and Debt Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 52-67, January.
    8. Michele Boldrin & Ana Montes, 2005. "The Intergenerational State Education and Pensions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 651-664.
    9. Patricia Cortes, 2008. "The Effect of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Prices: Evidence from CPI Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 381-422, June.
    10. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 737-755, June.
    11. Bohn, Henning, 1998. "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9r2809f0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
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    13. Gandal, Neil & Hanson, Gordon H. & Slaughter, M.J.Matthew J., 2004. "Technology, trade, and adjustment to immigration in Israel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 403-428, April.
    14. Fabio Canova & Morten Ravn, 2000. "The Macroeconomic Effects of German Unification: Real Adjustments and the Welfare State," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 423-460, July.
    15. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sarit Cohen & Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2001. "Macroeconomic and Labor Market Impact of Russian Immigration in Israel," Working Papers 2001-11, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    17. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier.
    18. Cohen Goldner, Sarit & Eckstein, Zvi & Weiss, Yoram, 2012. "Immigration and Labor Market Mobility in Israel, 1990 to 2009," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262017679, March.
    19. Eberhard, Juan, 2012. "Immigration, Human Capital and the Welfare of Natives," MPRA Paper 37844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:05:p:1815-1837_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bohn, Henning & Lopez-Velasco, Armando R., 2019. "Immigration And Demographics: Can High Immigrant Fertility Explain Voter Support For Immigration?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(05), pages 1815-1837, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social security; Human capital; Immigration; Trade deficit; Risk sharing;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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