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Immigration And Demographics: Can High Immigrant Fertility Explain Voter Support For Immigration?

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  • Bohn, Henning
  • Lopez-Velasco, Armando R.

Abstract

First generation immigrants to the United States have higher fertility rates than natives. This paper analyzes to what extent this factor provides political support for immigration, using an overlapping generation model with production and capital accumulation. In this setting, immigration represents a dynamic trade-off for native workers as more immigrants decrease current wages but increase the future return on their savings. We find that immigrant fertility has surprisingly strong effects on voter incentives, especially when there is persistence in the political process. If fertility rates are sufficiently high, native workers support immigration. Persistence, either due to inertia induced by frictions in the legal system or through expectational linkages, significantly magnifies the effects. Entry of immigrants with high fertility has redistributive impacts across generations similar to pay-as-you-go social security: initial generations are net winners, whereas later generations are net losers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohn, Henning & Lopez-Velasco, Armando R., 2019. "Immigration And Demographics: Can High Immigrant Fertility Explain Voter Support For Immigration?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1815-1837, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:23:y:2019:i:05:p:1815-1837_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Debasree Das Gupta & David W. S. Wong, 2021. "How “Dependent” Are We? A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Young and the Older Adult Populations in the US," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1221-1252, December.
    2. Russo, Giuseppe & Salsano, Francesco, 2019. "Electoral systems and immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Dotti, Valerio, 2020. "No Country for Young People? The Rise of Anti-immigration Populism in Ageing Societies," MPRA Paper 100226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dotti, Valerio, 2024. "No country for young people? The rise of anti-immigration politics in ageing societies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Lopez-Velasco, Armando R., 2024. "Markov equilibrium of social security: An analytic solution under CRRA utility and the future of social security," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

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