IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v53y2009i6p689-714.html

To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3

Author

Listed:
  • Malley, Jim
  • Philippopoulos, Apostolis
  • Woitek, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-cyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity and consumption habits, as the particular market failures justifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and allow policy instruments to react to the output gap and the debt-to-output ratio. A welfare analysis reveals that the most effective instrument-target combination is to use public consumption to stabilize the output gap. Moreover, welfare gains from counter-cyclical fiscal policy are much stronger in the presence of wage rigidities compared with consumption habits. Finally, since active policy and automatic stabilizers are substitutes, it is possible that relatively undistorted economies may be in need of countercyclical fiscal action due to inadequate automatic stabilizers.

Suggested Citation

  • Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009. "To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 689-714, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:6:p:689-714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014-2921(09)00026-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Fiscal policy and fiscal rules in the European Union," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(03), pages 57-64, October.
    3. Rochelle M. Edge, 2003. "A utility-based welfare criterion in a model with endogenous capital accumulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
    5. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    6. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Rules in the European Union," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0301, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303, Elsevier.
    11. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1477-1516, December.
    12. Peter Claeys, 2006. "Policy mix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-112, June.
    13. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    14. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
    15. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Modern Perspectives on Fiscal Stabilization Policies," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 587-599.
    16. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    17. Baier, Scott L. & Glomm, Gerhard, 2001. "Long-run growth and welfare effects of public policies with distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2007-2042, December.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    19. Beetsma, Roel & Illing, Gerhard, 2005. "Revival of Aggregate Demand Policies," Munich Reprints in Economics 13065, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    21. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    22. Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Hans Jørgen Whitta-Jacobsen, 2003. "Endogenous business cycles and systematic stabilization policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 895-915, August.
    23. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael, 2006. "Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1487-1506, August.
    24. Christoffel, Kai & Linzert, Tobias, 2005. "The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for unemployment and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 556, European Central Bank.
    25. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    26. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, December.
    27. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    28. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    29. Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model with Public Capital," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 337-364, May.
    30. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    31. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    32. Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 161-188.
    33. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    34. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    35. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.
    36. Marimon, Ramon & Scott, Andrew (ed.), 1999. "Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294979.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2015. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy action in a closed economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 175-188.
    2. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2011. "The welfare implications of resource allocation policies under uncertainty: The case of public education spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 176-192, June.
    3. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
    4. Konstantinos Mavrigiannakis & Stelios Sakkas, 2025. "EU Sanctions on Russia and Implications for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Cyprus," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 745-780, July.
    5. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy Lessons for Greece from the Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8188, CESifo.
    6. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2008. "Welfare Implications of Public Education Spending Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 2510, CESifo.
    7. Jiang Wei, 2019. "Optimal taxation under equilibrium unemployment and economic profits," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2016. "Business cycle determinants and fiscal policy: A Panel ARDL approach for EMU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 57-68.
    9. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis, 2016. "Monetary Union, Even Higher Integration, or Back to National Currencies?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(2), pages 232-255.
    10. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-106.
    11. Wei Jiang, 2014. "Optimal taxation and labour wedge in models with equilibrium unemployment," Studies in Economics 1407, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    12. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal Action in an Economy with Sovereign Premia and without Monetary Independence: An Application to Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4199, CESifo.
    13. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    14. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2010. "What is the best environmental policy?Taxes, permits and rules under economic and environmental uncertainty," Working Papers 119, Bank of Greece.
    15. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu & Milton Yago & Alaa M. Soliman, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy interaction: State dependency and implications for financial stability in UK: A systemic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1154283-115, December.
    16. Maravalle, Alessandro & Claeys, Peter, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles and procyclical fiscal policy in a small open economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 735-754.
    17. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & James Malley, 2010. "The distributional consequences of supply-side reforms in general equilibrium," Working Papers 2010_26, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2012.
    18. Apostolis Philippopoulos & Petros Varthalitis & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2012. "On the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy actions," Working Papers 150, Bank of Greece.
    19. Malley, James & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of funding U.S. infrastructure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2011. "Fiscal policy, economic activity and welfare: the case of Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2629-2640.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2007. "To React or Not? Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Welfare in the EU-3," IEW - Working Papers 312, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. Angelopoulos, Konstantinos & Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2011. "The welfare implications of resource allocation policies under uncertainty: The case of public education spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 176-192, June.
    3. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-023 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    6. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2008. "Welfare Implications of Public Education Spending Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 2510, CESifo.
    7. Fabrizio Mattesini & Lorenza Rossi, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Automatic Stabilizers: The Role of Progressive Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 825-862, August.
    8. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies: a likelihood approach," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Bai, Yuting & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "Nominal targeting in an economy with government debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 103-125.
    10. Ricardo Nunes & Jinill Kim & Jesper Linde & Davide Debortoli, 2014. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?," 2014 Meeting Papers 1043, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Gregory Erin Givens, 2006. "Revisiting the Delegation Problem in a Sticky Price and Wage Economy," Working Papers 200601, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    12. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
    13. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    14. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    15. Alessandro Maravalle & Peter Claeys, 2010. "Fiscal policy and economic stability: does PIGS stand for Procyclicality In Government Spending?," IREA Working Papers 201015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised 2010.
    16. Lieb, L.M., 2009. "Taking real rigidities seriously: implications for optimal policy design in a currency union," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    17. Proaño, Christian R., 2012. "Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 220-235.
    18. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2024. "Wells or Welfare? Macroeconomic implications of the Canadian oil subsidy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & James Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2012. "Tax structure, growth, and welfare in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 237-258, April.
    20. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    21. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2022. "The implications of public expenditures on a small economy in transition: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 401-431, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:6:p:689-714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.