IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v443y2021ics0304380021000417.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Kouadio, Louis
  • Tixier, Philippe
  • Byrareddy, Vivekananda
  • Marcussen, Torben
  • Mushtaq, Shahbaz
  • Rapidel, Bruno
  • Stone, Roger

Abstract

Reliable and timely prediction of robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner) yield is pivotal to the profitability of the coffee industry worldwide. In this study we assess the performance of a simple process-based model for simulating and predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam. The model includes the key processes of coffee growth and development and simulates its response to variation in climate and potential water requirements throughout the growing season. The model was built and evaluated for the major Vietnamese robusta coffee-producing provinces Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Kon Tum, and Lam Dong, using official provincial coffee yield data and climate station data for the 2001–2014 period, and field data collected during a 10-year (2008–2017) survey. Overall, good agreements were found between the observed and predicted coffee yields. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values ranged from 0.24 to 0.33 t ha−1, and 9% to 14%, respectively. Willmott's index of agreement (WI) was greater than or equal to 0.710 in model evaluation steps for three out of five provinces. The relatively low values of WI were found for provinces with relatively low inter-annual yield variability (i.e. Dak Lak and Dak Nong). Moreover, the model was successfully tested using remote sensing satellite and model-based gridded climate data: MAPE values were ≤ 12% and RMSE were ≤ 0.29 t ha−1. Such evaluation is important for long-term coffee productivity studies in these regions where long-term climate stations data are not readily available. The simple process-based model presented in this study could serve as a basis for developing an integrated seasonal climate-robusta coffee yield forecasting system, which would offer substantial benefits to coffee growers and industry through better supply chain management and preparedness for extreme climate events, and increased profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kouadio, Louis & Tixier, Philippe & Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Marcussen, Torben & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rapidel, Bruno & Stone, Roger, 2021. "Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:443:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021000417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380021000417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109469?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Hoanh, Chu Thai & D'haeze, Dave & Hung, Tran Quoc, 2015. "Toward sustainable coffee production in Vietnam: More coffee with less water," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 96-105.
    2. Fábio M. DaMatta & Eric Rahn & Peter Läderach & Raquel Ghini & José C. Ramalho, 2019. "Why could the coffee crop endure climate change and global warming to a greater extent than previously estimated?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 167-178, January.
    3. Rodríguez, Daniel & Cure, José Ricardo & Cotes, José Miguel & Gutierrez, Andrew Paul & Cantor, Fernando, 2011. "A coffee agroecosystem model: I. Growth and development of the coffee plant," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3626-3639.
    4. Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Kouadio, Louis & Kath, Jarrod & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rafiei, Vahid & Scobie, Michael & Stone, Roger, 2020. "Win-win: Improved irrigation management saves water and increases yield for robusta coffee farms in Vietnam," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Rahn, Eric & Vaast, Philippe & Läderach, Peter & van Asten, Piet & Jassogne, Laurence & Ghazoul, Jaboury, 2018. "Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 76-89.
    6. Parton, Kevin A. & Crean, Jason & Hayman, Peter, 2019. "The value of seasonal climate forecasts for Australian agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 37-54.
    9. D'haeze, Dave & Deckers, Jozef & Raes, Dirk & Phong, Tran An & Minh Chanh, Nguyen Dang, 2003. "Over-irrigation of Coffea canephora in the Central Highlands of Vietnam revisited: Simulation of soil moisture dynamics in Rhodic Ferralsols," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 185-202, December.
    10. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    11. Christian Bunn & Peter Läderach & Oriana Ovalle Rivera & Dieter Kirschke, 2015. "A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 89-101, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ceballos-Sierra, Federico & Dall'Erba, Sandy, 2021. "The effect of climate variability on Colombian coffee productivity: A dynamic panel model approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    3. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    4. Checo, Ariadne & Mejía, Mariam & Ramírez, Francisco A., 2017. "El rol de los regímenes de precipitaciones sobre la dinámica de precios y actividad del sector agropecuario de la República Dominicana durante el período 2000-2016 [The role of rainfall regimes on ," MPRA Paper 80301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    7. Arellano-Gonzalez, Jesus & Juarez-Torres, Miriam & Zazueta-Borboa, Francisco, 2021. "Temperature shocks and local price changes of agricultural products: panel data evidence from Mexico," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314060, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña‐Duarte & José Maria Gil, 2023. "Drought shocks and price adjustments in local food markets in Chile: Do product quality and marketing channel matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 349-363, May.
    9. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    11. Tsegaye Ginbo, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Muhammad Faraz & Valentina Mereu & Donatella Spano & Antonio Trabucco & Serena Marras & Daniel El Chami, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Analytical and Modelling Tools to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Coffee Agrosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Yongfei & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The impacts of El Niño-southern oscillation on renewable energy stock markets: Evidence from quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    14. Tosto, Ambra & Morales, Alejandro & Rahn, Eric & Evers, Jochem B. & Zuidema, Pieter A. & Anten, Niels P.R., 2023. "Simulating cocoa production: A review of modelling approaches and gaps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    15. Daniel Gaitán-Cremaschi & Frits K. Van Evert & Don M. Jansen & Miranda P. M. Meuwissen & Alfons G. J. M. Oude Lansink, 2018. "Assessing the Sustainability Performance of Coffee Farms in Vietnam: A Social Profit Inefficiency Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    16. Luca Di Corato & Tsegaye Ginbo, 2020. "Climate change and coffee farm relocation in Ethiopia: a real-options approach," Working Papers 2020:02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    17. Venturin, Afonso Zucolotto & Guimarães, Claudinei Martins & Sousa, Elias Fernandes de & Machado Filho, José Altino & Rodrigues, Weverton Pereira & Serrazine, Ícaro de Araujo & Bressan-Smith, Ricardo &, 2020. "Using a crop water stress index based on a sap flow method to estimate water status in conilon coffee plants," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Rahn, Eric & Vaast, Philippe & Läderach, Peter & van Asten, Piet & Jassogne, Laurence & Ghazoul, Jaboury, 2018. "Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 76-89.
    20. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:443:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021000417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.