Pattern evolution and dynamic formation mechanism of global scrap copper trade network: Based on temporal exponential random graph model

Against the backdrop of environmental pollution, resource depletion and imbalance between supply and demand, the scrap copper trade market has become increasingly active. This paper adopts the complex network analysis method to not only explore the pattern evolution of the global scrap copper trade, but also innovatively use the temporal exponential random graph model to analyze the dynamic formation mechanism. The results show that, (1) over the years, the closeness of the scrap copper trade network between economies has deepened, and it has shown endogenous structural characteristics of reciprocity, grouping, and diversification. (2) European and American economies take on more of the sender role in the scrap copper trade network, while Asian economies take on more of the receiver role. (3) The global scrap copper trade network exhibits significant core-periphery structural characteristics. (4) The evolution of global scrap copper trade pattern is influenced by a combination of exogenous factors and network endogenous structure factors, and time-dependent variables also help to drive the scrap copper trade network. This paper is of great significance for economies to understand the global trade pattern of scrap copper, formulate reasonable resource management and trade policies, and achieve the goal of sustainable development.