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School closures, shelter-use and learning outcomes in the philippines: evidence from 2019 TIMSS

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  • Abrigo, Michael R.M.
  • Francisco, Kris A.
  • Santos, Kevin Carl P.

Abstract

Schools are often used as temporary shelters during calamities in many places around the world. This may prolong calamity-induced school closures, which may contribute to learning losses. In this study, we combined student assessment data from the Philippine round of the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) with school administrative records and area-level typhoon warnings to assess the impact of short school closures on learning outcomes. Results show that one school closure day induced by school-as-shelter use depresses student achievement by 12 to 14 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent roughly to as much as a full year’s worth of learning. We find limited evidence that this could be partly driven by a decline in student interest, rather than by a contraction in the breadth of topics covered in class or by poorer teaching quality. These findings highlight potential hidden disasters from seemingly benign but frequent hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrigo, Michael R.M. & Francisco, Kris A. & Santos, Kevin Carl P., 2026. "School closures, shelter-use and learning outcomes in the philippines: evidence from 2019 TIMSS," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:110:y:2026:i:c:s0272775725001189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2025.102738
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