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Life expectancy, fertility, and retirement in an endogenous-growth model with human capital accumulation

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  • Chen, Hung-Ju
  • Huang, Shang-Chieh
  • Miyazaki, Koichi

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the improvement in life expectancy affects fertility, educational investments, retirement, and economic growth based on an overlapping-generations model with human capital accumulation. We show that if the labor productivity of the old is greater (lower) than a critical value, then higher life expectancy will raise (reduce) fertility. Moreover, agents will postpone retirement as life expectancy increases if the labor productivity of the old is near the critical value. However, life expectancy changes do not affect output per capita's growth rate. A decrease in the income tax rate does not affect fertility, but causes agents to postpone retirement while simultaneously raising the growth rate of output per capita. The empirical analysis finds that life expectancy has an overall negative effect on fertility, and this negative effect diminishes as life expectancy (a proxy for labor productivity of the old) rises. Moreover, life expectancy does not significantly influence growth for countries with high life expectancy or middle or high income.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hung-Ju & Huang, Shang-Chieh & Miyazaki, Koichi, 2024. "Life expectancy, fertility, and retirement in an endogenous-growth model with human capital accumulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:130:y:2024:i:c:s026499932300384x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Hung-Ju & Fang, I-Hsiang, 2013. "Migration, social security, and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 386-399.
    2. Chen Hung-Ju & Miyazaki Koichi, 2022. "Pay-as-You-Go Social Security and Educational Subsidy in an Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility and Endogenous Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 787-820, June.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development

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