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Regime uncertainty and optimal investment timing


  • Nishide, Katsumasa
  • Nomi, Ernesto Kazuhiro


We construct a real options model in which a regime change is expected at a pre-determined future time and study the effects of regime uncertainty on a firm's strategic investment decision, taking into consideration the remaining time to the regime change and the probability of each regime state. We show that just before the time of a regime change, firms should act as if the worst-case scenario was about to happen, even if a good state is highly possible.

Suggested Citation

  • Nishide, Katsumasa & Nomi, Ernesto Kazuhiro, 2009. "Regime uncertainty and optimal investment timing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1796-1807, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:10:p:1796-1807

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    3. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    4. Pawlina, Grzegorz & Kort, Peter M., 2005. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1193-1209, July.
    5. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    7. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen Arguedas & Francisco Cabo & Guiomar Martín-Herrán, 2017. "Optimal Pollution Standards and Non-compliance in a Dynamic Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(3), pages 537-567, November.
    2. Dearmon, Jacob & Grier, Robin, 2011. "Trust and the accumulation of physical and human capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 507-519, September.
    3. Zhang, Ran & Xu, Shuang, 2014. "Optimal stopping time with stochastic volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 319-328.
    4. Nishide, Katsumasa & Yagi, Kyoko, 2016. "Investment under regime uncertainty: Impact of competition and preemption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 47-58.
    5. Krysiak, Frank C., 2011. "Environmental regulation, technological diversity, and the dynamics of technological change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 528-544, April.
    6. Katsumasa Nishide & Kyoko Yagi, 2013. "Competition and the Bad News Principle in a Real Options Framework," KIER Working Papers 860, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    8. repec:eee:jbfina:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:207-220 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Makoto Goto & Katsumasa Nishide & Ryuta Takashima, 2013. "Irreversible Investment under Competition with a Markov Switching Regime," KIER Working Papers 861, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.


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