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Regime uncertainty and optimal investment timing

  • Nishide, Katsumasa
  • Nomi, Ernesto Kazuhiro

We construct a real options model in which a regime change is expected at a pre-determined future time and study the effects of regime uncertainty on a firm's strategic investment decision, taking into consideration the remaining time to the regime change and the probability of each regime state. We show that just before the time of a regime change, firms should act as if the worst-case scenario was about to happen, even if a good state is highly possible.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 1796-1807

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:10:p:1796-1807
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  1. Xin Guo & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2002. "Irreversible Investment with Regime Shifts," FAME Research Paper Series rp99, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  2. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2004. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Other publications TiSEM dc869876-eaea-427c-ad5f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4553018, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  6. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1993. "Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 4486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. S. D. Jacka, 1991. "Optimal Stopping and the American Put," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
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