Export promotion, learning by doing and growth
This paper explores the quantitative link between export-promoting commercial policies and economic growth. We build and calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small developing economy. The economy's equilibrium is suboptimal due to monopolistic competition in the manufacturing sector and a human capital accumulation externality. Second-best commercial policy that promotes exports in the sector with the externality can lead to an increase in both welfare and growth rates. We show that export-promoting policies can lead to substantial quantitative increases in steady-state growth for a wide range of parameter values. Nous examinons dans ce texte le lien quantitatif entre les politiques commerciales qui encouragent les exportations d'une part et, d'autre part, la croissance économique. Nous développons et étalonnons un modèle dynamique d'équilibre général d'un petite économie en voie de développement. L'équilibre de l'économie est sous-optimal à cause de la concurrence monopolistique dans le secteur manufacturier et à cause d'une externalité au niveau de l'accumulation du capital humain. Des politiques commerciales de second rang qui encouragent les exportations dans le secteur où il y a l'externalité peuvent simultanément améliorer le bien-être et faire augmenter le taux de croissance. Nous montrons que de telles politiques peuvent avoir des effets importants sur la croissance pour une gamme de valeurs de paramètres assez large.
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