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Identifying waste leakage: Behavioral responses to China’s municipal solid waste classification plan

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  • Zhan, Lue
  • Xiang, Di
  • Lawley, Chad

Abstract

This article examines the intended and unintended consequences of China's mandatory Municipal Solid Waste Classification Plan (MSWCP). We find that the policy achieved its primary goal, reducing waste generation by 14.5 %. However, using e-commerce retail sales data across Chinese municipalities, we also identify significant “waste leakage”: an average of 25.0 % increase in plastic trash bag sales and an 21.4 % increase in food waste shredder sales. Dynamic estimates show a rapid increase in trash bag use, contrasting with a slower uptake of shredders. Heterogeneous effects analysis indicates greater responsiveness to the MSWCP in municipalities emphasizing monitoring over awareness campaigns. Despite a positive net benefit from the MSWCP, we find a substantial waste leakage cost, equivalent to 17 % of the net benefit, driven by increased consumption of trash bags and shredders.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhan, Lue & Xiang, Di & Lawley, Chad, 2025. "Identifying waste leakage: Behavioral responses to China’s municipal solid waste classification plan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:94:y:2025:i:pa:s1043951x2500166x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102508
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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