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Trade and welfare effects of food trade policy changes: Evidence from China's anti-dumping and countervailing measures on Australian barley

Author

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  • Yang, Jijun
  • Ai, Weiwei
  • Wang, Wenxiao

Abstract

Food imports play an important role in ensuring overall food security. This paper provides a dynamic assessment of the trade and welfare effects of China's anti-dumping and countervailing (“double reverse”) tariffs on Australian barley. Using a difference-in-differences approach and a partial equilibrium model, we find that trade destruction effects—marked by a significant drop in Australian barley exports to China—greatly outweigh trade diversion effects, with distinct outcomes across the investigation, execution, and termination phases. Although these measures offer short-term protection for Chinese barley producers, they result in a net welfare loss for China due to reduced consumer welfare. Australia also incurs a net welfare loss from decreased producer surplus and lower domestic prices. In contrast, third countries benefit from expanded access to China's barley market and a redirection of Australian barley exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jijun & Ai, Weiwei & Wang, Wenxiao, 2025. "Trade and welfare effects of food trade policy changes: Evidence from China's anti-dumping and countervailing measures on Australian barley," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x2500063x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102405
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