IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i16p6943-d1455507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertilizer Price Surge in Poland and Beyond: Seeking the Way Forward towards Sustainable Development

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra Kowalska

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 5, 20-031 Lublin, Poland)

  • Mateusz Hałka

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 5, 20-031 Lublin, Poland)

  • Anna Budzyńska

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 5, 20-031 Lublin, Poland)

  • Mariusz Kicia

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 5, 20-031 Lublin, Poland)

  • Konrad Terpiłowski

    (Institute of Chemical Sciences, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University, pl. Marii Curie-Skłodowskiej 2, 20-031 Lublin, Poland)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the main determinants on the rapid increase in fertilizer prices in Poland and to foresee the consequences of this situation regarding sustainable policy developments. We developed linear regression models for N, P, and K fertilizers to show the direction of influence of explaining variables and make a decomposition of the fertilizer price increases. The models illustrate that four major factors were responsible for the fertilizer price increases in Poland in 2020–2022, i.e., wheat, gas, GHGE allowance prices, and domestic production volumes. These factors explained the variation in the price of fertilizers concerned with different strengths. There were also other impacts associated with the ‘black swans’ occurrence (the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine). High mineral fertilizer prices provide an opportunity to revise agricultural policy and legislation, taking into account environmental concerns and the latest technological developments. Fertilizer management practices are at the center of a triangle of critical objectives that track the progress toward sustainable agricultural systems, such as (1) an increase in farm incomes, (2) environmental protection, and (3) food and nutrition security. We recommend adjusting the set of explaining variables in the models (i.e., wheat/corn price) to the specificities of the domestic agri-food system. This study provides important guidance for agricultural policymaking, emphasizing the need to integrate sustainable fertilizer management practices to achieve synergies between economic growth, environmental protection, and food security. Such an approach can support the long-term development of agriculture in Poland and contribute to the economic and environmental stability of the agricultural sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra Kowalska & Mateusz Hałka & Anna Budzyńska & Mariusz Kicia & Konrad Terpiłowski, 2024. "Fertilizer Price Surge in Poland and Beyond: Seeking the Way Forward towards Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:16:p:6943-:d:1455507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/16/6943/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/16/6943/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Anton Bekkerman & Thomas Gumbley & Gary W. Brester, 2021. "The Impacts of Biofuel Policies on Spatial and Vertical Price Relationships in the US Fertilizer Industry," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 802-822, June.
    3. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    4. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Kotek, Péter & Selei, Adrienn & Takácsné Tóth, Borbála & Felsmann, Balázs, 2023. "What can the EU do to address the high natural gas prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Simons, Andrew M. & Ahmed, Milkiyas & Blalock, Garrick & Nesin, Bourcard, 2023. "Indigenous bone fertilizer for growth and food security: A local solution to a global challenge," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Piotr Gołasa & Wioletta Bieńkowska-Gołasa & Magdalena Golonko & Paulina Trębska & Piotr Gradziuk & Arkadiusz Gromada & Marcin Wysokiński, 2022. "Sensitivity of the Agribusiness Sector to Sudden Changes in the Prices of Energy Carriers on the Example of Poland: Current State and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-10, November.
    8. Colussi, Joana & Schnitkey, Gary & Zulauf, Carl, 2022. "War in Ukraine and its Effect on Fertilizer Exports to Brazil and the U.S," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 12(34), March.
    9. Ashley Beeler & K. Aleks Schaefer & Jacob Sestak & Glenn Conover, 2024. "Impacts of U.S. countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 620-636, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Hao Xu & Niu Niu & Dongmei Li & Chengjie Wang, 2024. "A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Čermák, Michal & Ligocká, Marie, 2022. "Could Exist a Causality Between the Most Traded Commodities and Futures Commodity Prices in the Agricultural Market?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 14(4), December.
    5. Kotek, Peter & Tóth, Borbála Takácsné & Selei, Adrienn, 2023. "Designing a future-proof gas and hydrogen infrastructure for Europe – A modelling-based approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    7. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Lei, Xiaojie & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Dynamic dependence between main-byproduct metals and the role of clean energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Ahmad, Wasim & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Saini, Seema & Mishra, Ritesh Kumar, 2021. "The US equity sectors, implied volatilities, and COVID-19: What does the spillover analysis reveal?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Doğan, Buhari & Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Dynamic dependence and causality between crude oil, green bonds, commodities, geopolitical risks, and policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 36-62.
    10. Danilo Đokić & Bojan Matkovski & Marija Jeremić & Ivan Đurić, 2022. "Land Productivity and Agri-Environmental Indicators: A Case Study of Western Balkans," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Lang, Le Dang & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hieu, Hoang Ngoc & Ha, Nguyen Minh & Gaur, Jighyasu, 2023. "The role of structural social capital in driving social-oriented sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Jiang, Wei & Chen, Yunfei, 2022. "The time-frequency connectedness among metal, energy and carbon markets pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Chen, Peng & He, Limin & Yang, Xuan, 2021. "On interdependence structure of China's commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Schnitkey, Gary & Paulson, Nick & Zulauf, Carl & Swanson, Krista & Colussi, Joana & Baltz, Jim, . "Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices and Supply in Light of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 12(45).
    16. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Zhao, Lu-Tao & Liu, Hai-Yi & Chen, Xue-Hui, 2024. "How does carbon market interact with energy and sectoral stocks? Evidence from risk spillover and wavelet coherence," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    18. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    19. Abdulrasheed Zakari & Jurij Toplak & Luka Martin Tomažič, 2022. "Exploring the Relationship between Energy and Food Security in Africa with Instrumental Variables Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:16:p:6943-:d:1455507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.