IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v319y2022ics0306261922005803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Phasing out coal: An impact analysis comparing five large-scale electricity market models

Author

Listed:
  • Pöstges, Arne
  • Bucksteeg, Michael
  • Ruhnau, Oliver
  • Böttger, Diana
  • Haller, Markus
  • Künle, Eglantine
  • Ritter, David
  • Schmitz, Richard
  • Wiedmann, Michael

Abstract

Climate target achievement has a crucial influence on the modelling and the decision processes in the energy sector. It has motivated the development of several policy instruments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, including administrative and market-based mechanisms for phasing out coal-fired generation technologies. In order to analyse such instruments, electricity market and energy system models are widely used. However, the results and the corresponding recommendations largely depend on the formulation of the respective model. This motivates a systematic comparison of five large-scale electricity market models which are applied to European scenarios with a focus of the analysis on Germany considering the period until 2030. A method for the identification of model differences is proposed to analyse the effects of two coal phase-out strategies. This contribution expands on earlier studies and provides some more general takeaways for both modellers and decision-makers. For instance, our analysis demonstrates the influence of the reference scenario on evaluating a policy instrument. Furthermore, the importance of technical aspects, such as the constraints for combined heat and power plants, are discussed, and implications regarding three dimensions (the generation adequacy, economic efficiency and environmental sustainability of power supply) are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Pöstges, Arne & Bucksteeg, Michael & Ruhnau, Oliver & Böttger, Diana & Haller, Markus & Künle, Eglantine & Ritter, David & Schmitz, Richard & Wiedmann, Michael, 2022. "Phasing out coal: An impact analysis comparing five large-scale electricity market models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:319:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922005803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922005803
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anke, Carl-Philipp & Hobbie, Hannes & Schreiber, Steffi & Möst, Dominik, 2020. "Coal phase-outs and carbon prices: Interactions between EU emission trading and national carbon mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    3. Helgeson, Broghan & Peter, Jakob, 2020. "The role of electricity in decarbonizing European road transport – Development and assessment of an integrated multi-sectoral model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    4. Ruhnau, O. & Bucksteeg, M. & Ritter, D. & Schmitz, R. & Böttger, D. & Koch, M. & Pöstges, A. & Wiedmann, M. & Hirth, L., 2022. "Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Zouros, N. & Contaxis, G. C. & Kabouris, J., 2005. "Decision support tool to evaluate alternative policies regulating wind integration into autonomous energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1541-1555, August.
    6. Bucksteeg, Michael & Wiedmann, Michael & Pöstges, Arne & Haller, Markus & Böttger, Diana & Ruhnau, Oliver & Schmitz, Richard, 2022. "The transformation of integrated electricity and heat systems—Assessing mid-term policies using a model comparison approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Trepper, Katrin & Bucksteeg, Michael & Weber, Christoph, 2015. "Market splitting in Germany – New evidence from a three-stage numerical model of Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 199-215.
    8. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    9. Wyatt, Peter, 2013. "A dwelling-level investigation into the physical and socio-economic drivers of domestic energy consumption in England," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 540-549.
    10. Ruhnau, Oliver, 2022. "How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    11. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    12. Felten, Björn, 2020. "An integrated model of coupled heat and power sectors for large-scale energy system analyses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Siala, Kais & Mier, Mathias & Schmidt, Lukas & Torralba-Díaz, Laura & Sheykhha, Siamak & Savvidis, Georgios, 2022. "Which model features matter? An experimental approach to evaluate power market modeling choices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    14. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    15. Richter, Jan, 2011. "DIMENSION - A Dispatch and Investment Model for European Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2011-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    16. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-161, April.
    17. van Ouwerkerk, Jonas & Gils, Hans Christian & Gardian, Hedda & Kittel, Martin & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander & Murmann, Alexander & Launer, Jann & Torralba-Díaz, Laura & Bußar, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of power sector model features on optimal capacity expansion: A comparative study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Leonard Göke & Martin Kittel & Claudia Kemfert & Casimir Lorenz & Pao-Yu Oei & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2018. "Erfolgreicher Klimaschutz durch zügigen Kohleausstieg in Deutschland und Nordrhein-Westfalen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(33), pages 701-711.
    19. Kitzing, Lena & Mitchell, Catherine & Morthorst, Poul Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy policies in Europe: Converging or diverging?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 192-201.
    20. Zhang, Cheng & Wang, Qunwei & Shi, Dan & Li, Pengfei & Cai, Wanhuan, 2016. "Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China: An integrated approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 177-190.
    21. Hamilton, Ian G. & Steadman, Philip J. & Bruhns, Harry & Summerfield, Alex J. & Lowe, Robert, 2013. "Energy efficiency in the British housing stock: Energy demand and the Homes Energy Efficiency Database," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-480.
    22. Hirth, Lion, 2016. "The benefits of flexibility: The value of wind energy with hydropower," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 210-223.
    23. Misconel, S. & Leisen, R. & Mikurda, J. & Zimmermann, F. & Fraunholz, C. & Fichtner, W. & Möst, D. & Weber, C., 2022. "Systematic comparison of high-resolution electricity system modeling approaches focusing on investment, dispatch and generation adequacy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    24. Hirth, Lion & Ruhnau, Oliver & Sgarlato, Raffaele, 2021. "The European Electricity Market Model EMMA - Model Description," EconStor Preprints 244592, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    25. David Ritter & Roland Meyer & Matthias Koch & Markus Haller & Dierk Bauknecht & Christoph Heinemann, 2019. "Effects of a Delayed Expansion of Interconnector Capacities in a High RES-E European Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-32, August.
    26. Pao-Yu Oei & Mario Kendziorski & Philipp Herpich & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2020. "Klimaschutz statt Kohleschmutz: Woran es beim Kohleausstieg hakt und was zu tun ist," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk148.
    27. John Weyant & Elmar Kriegler, 2014. "Preface and introduction to EMF 27," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 345-352, April.
    28. Bjoern Felten & Jan Paul Baginski & Christoph Weber, 2017. "KWK-Mindest- und Maximaleinspeisung - Die Erzeugung von Zeitreihen fuer die Energiesystemmodellierung," EWL Working Papers 1710, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kirchem, Dana & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2023. "Power sector effects of green hydrogen production in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Mayer, Martin János & Biró, Bence & Szücs, Botond & Aszódi, Attila, 2023. "Probabilistic modeling of future electricity systems with high renewable energy penetration using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    3. Ruhnau, O. & Bucksteeg, M. & Ritter, D. & Schmitz, R. & Böttger, D. & Koch, M. & Pöstges, A. & Wiedmann, M. & Hirth, L., 2022. "Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Do, Thang Nam & Burke, Paul J., 2023. "Phasing out coal power in a developing country context: Insights from Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Marco Sebastian Breder & Felix Meurer & Michael Bucksteeg & Christoph Weber, 2022. "Spatial Incentives for Power-to-hydrogen through Market Splitting," EWL Working Papers 2203, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Jul 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bucksteeg, Michael & Wiedmann, Michael & Pöstges, Arne & Haller, Markus & Böttger, Diana & Ruhnau, Oliver & Schmitz, Richard, 2022. "The transformation of integrated electricity and heat systems—Assessing mid-term policies using a model comparison approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Ruhnau, O. & Bucksteeg, M. & Ritter, D. & Schmitz, R. & Böttger, D. & Koch, M. & Pöstges, A. & Wiedmann, M. & Hirth, L., 2022. "Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Nastasi, Benedetto & Groppi, Daniele & Misconel, Steffi & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Sparber, Wolfram, 2022. "Comparison methods of energy system frameworks, models and scenario results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Gils, Hans Christian & Gardian, Hedda & Kittel, Martin & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Murmann, Alexander & Launer, Jann & Gaumnitz, Felix & van Ouwerkerk, Jonas & Mikurda, Jennifer & Torralba-Díaz, Laura, 2022. "Model-related outcome differences in power system models with sector coupling—Quantification and drivers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Ruhnau, Oliver, 2022. "How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    6. Martin Kittel & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2021. "Renewable Energy Targets and Unintended Storage Cycling: Implications for Energy Modeling," Papers 2107.13380, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    7. Mier, Mathias & Azarova, Valeriya, 2024. "Investment cost specifications revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Haugen, Mari & Blaisdell-Pijuan, Paris L. & Botterud, Audun & Levin, Todd & Zhou, Zhi & Belsnes, Michael & Korpås, Magnus & Somani, Abhishek, 2024. "Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    9. Geoffrey J. Blanford & Christoph Weissbart, 2019. "A Framework for Modeling the Dynamics of Power Markets – The EU-REGEN Model," ifo Working Paper Series 307, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Build Wind Capacities at Windy Locations? Assessment of System Optimal Wind Locations," EWI Working Papers 2017-9, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    11. Siala, Kais & Mier, Mathias & Schmidt, Lukas & Torralba-Díaz, Laura & Sheykhha, Siamak & Savvidis, Georgios, 2022. "Which model features matter? An experimental approach to evaluate power market modeling choices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    12. Jahns, Christopher & Podewski, Caroline & Weber, Christoph, 2020. "Supply curves for hydro reservoirs – Estimation and usage in large-scale electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Christopher Jahns & Caroline Podewski & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Supply Curves for Hydro Reservoirs - Estimation and Usage in Large-Scale Electricity Market Models," EWL Working Papers 1901, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    14. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    15. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Liu, Feng & van den Bergh, Jeroen & Wei, Yihang, 2024. "Testing mechanisms through which China's ETS promotes a low-carbon transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Klie, Leo & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Optimal configuration and diversification of wind turbines: A hybrid approach to improve the penetration of wind power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Li, Yanxue & Zhang, Xiaoyi & Gao, Weijun & Xu, Wenya & Wang, Zixuan, 2022. "Operational performance and grid-support assessment of distributed flexibility practices among residential prosumers under high PV penetration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    19. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2010. "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    20. Ruhnau, Oliver & Hirth, Lion & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model comparison; Coal phase-out; Electricity market model; Energy policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P11 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P28 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Natural Resources; Environment
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:319:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922005803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.