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Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production

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  • Finger, Robert
  • Lazzarotto, Patrick
  • Calanca, Pierluigi

Abstract

In order to analyze impacts of climate change on managed grassland systems and to project potential changes in farmers' management practices in response to altered climatic conditions, we develop a modeling approach that integrates a process-based grassland model into an economic model. This economic model describes farmers' decision making with respect to input use and accounts for production levels, production risks, fodder quality as determined by the grassland composition, and environmental protection. We apply the bio-economic model to an intensively managed grassland system with a geographic focus on the Swiss Plateau. Our results show an increase of future production risks in grassland production due to climate change. Projected changes in yield levels, grassland composition and optimal responses of risk-averse farmers are dependent on the assumptions concerning cross-compliance obligations, forage quality and particularly on the assumed effect of elevated CO2 concentrations: Grasslands yields will increase under future climatic conditions only if the benefits of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are taken into account. Without this potential benefit, climate change will lead to less intensive input use and lower grassland yields.

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  • Finger, Robert & Lazzarotto, Patrick & Calanca, Pierluigi, 2010. "Bio-economic assessment of climate change impacts on managed grassland production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 666-674, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:103:y:2010:i:9:p:666-674
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Finger & Niklaus Lehmann, 2012. "The influence of direct payments on farmers’ hail insurance decisions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 343-354, May.
    2. Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Schönhart, Martin & Trautvetter, Helene & Parajka, Juraj & Blaschke, Alfred Paul & Hepp, Gerold & Kirchner, Mathias & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Strenn, Birgit & Zessner, Matthias, 2018. "Modelled impacts of policies and climate change on land use and water quality in Austria," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 500-514.
    4. Lieffering, Mark & Newton, Paul C.D. & Vibart, Ronaldo & Li, Frank Y., 2016. "Exploring climate change impacts and adaptations of extensive pastoral agriculture systems by combining biophysical simulation and farm system models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 77-86.
    5. Finger, Robert & Lehmann, Niklaus, 2011. "Do Direct Payments Influence Farmers' Hail Insurance Decisions?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114355, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Niklaus Lehmann & Robert Finger & Tommy Klein & Pierluigi Calanca, 2013. "Sample Size Requirements for Assessing Statistical Moments of Simulated Crop Yield Distributions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11, April.
    7. Soraya Tanure & Carlos Nabinger & João Luiz Becker, 2015. "Bioeconomic Model of Decision Support System for Farm Management: Proposal of a Mathematical Model," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 658-671, November.
    8. Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton, 2018. "Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 219-231, July.
    9. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    10. Tanure, Soraya & Nabinger, Carlos & Becker, João Luiz, 2013. "Bioeconomic model of decision support system for farm management. Part I: Systemic conceptual modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 104-116.
    11. Simon Briner & Michael Hartmann & Robert Finger & Bernard Lehmann, 2012. "Greenhouse gas mitigation and offset options for suckler cow farms: an economic comparison for the Swiss case," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 337-355, April.
    12. Luz Maria Castro & Fabian Härtl & Santiago Ochoa & Baltazar Calvas & Leonardo Izquierdo & Thomas Knoke, 2018. "Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-211, July.
    13. Leite, João Guilherme Dal Belo & Silva, João Vasco & van Ittersum, Martin K., 2014. "Integrated assessment of biodiesel policies aimed at family farms in Brazil," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 64-76.
    14. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Modeling the sensitivity of agricultural water use to price variability and climate change—An application to Swiss maize production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 135-143.

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